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UP FRONTMonday 14 March 2016
Intelligence advice for next president: Rocky road ahead
DEB RIECHMANN In this Sept. 22, 2014, file photo, the White House is photographed from Pennsylvania Avenue of life.
Associated Press in Washington. Associated Press “Really for the first time in
WASHINGTON (AP) — To: human history, people as
The next president of the across Africa, the Arab individuals, really, really
United States. world and parts of Asia. matter,” Fry said in an inter-
From: U.S. intelligence of- Competition among the view.
ficials. U.S, China and Russia will She recalled Mohammed
Welcome to the White heat up, raising the risk of Bouazizi, a fruit seller who
House. Now read our take future confrontations. Cli- killed himself in 2010 to
on global political land- mate change is a problem protest police actions in
scape and trends for the now. And technological Tunisia. His death sparked
next five years and be- advances will force gov- an uprising that led to the
yond. Bottom line: Get ernments and their citizens ouster of Tunisia’s dictator
ready for a rocky road. to wrestle with securing and inspired Arab Spring
Their forecast calls for a data, privacy, intellectual protests against authoritar-
slowing global economy property and jobs lost to ian rule across the region.
dragged down by slug- high-tech innovations. In America, public discon-
gish growth in China, and The National Intelligence tent is evidenced by the
political volatility across Council, part of the Of- rise of two presidential
the world, spurred by disil- fice of the Director of Na- candidates — Republican
lusionment with the status tional Intelligence, serves Donald Trump and Dem-
quo. Insecurity will deepen as a bridge between in- ocrat Bernie Sanders —
rifts among social classes telligence agencies and whose anti-establishment
and religious groups. Ex- policymakers. Its global messages appeal to anger
tremists will consolidate trends report is compiled among the general elec-
into large-scale networks every four years so it can torate, Fry said.
be handed to an incom- “They’re channeling some-
ing president or the incum- thing that we’re observing
bent. A summary of a draft in a lot of countries, not just
of its latest findings was to the United States, which is
be released Monday at a this real dissatisfaction with
conference in Austin, Tex- the existing social bargains
as. or compacts in societies,”
These trends follow 20 Fry said.
years of unprecedented The report suggests that
reductions in poverty and this type of populism be-
increased access to edu- ing seen in industrial na-
cation and information, tions will percolate in the
which have empowered developing world as those
citizens around the world. affected by a slow-to-zero
Suzanne Fry, director of the rise in wages and a hollow-
council’s Strategic Future ing out of the middle class
Group, and about 10 of start questioning the effec-
her colleagues visited 30 tiveness of traditional poli-
countries since Septem- cies.
ber 2014 to talk about the The council’s final report is
future with an estimated expected to be released
1,800 people from all walks between Election Day,
Nov. 1, and the inaugura-
tion of the next president,
on Jan. 20, 2017. The aim
is to provide information
about emerging trends to
guide decisions that could
alter the way the world is
expected to evolve during
the next 20 years.
A significant trend cited in
the report is a slowdown of
China’s economy, which
has reduced demand for
commodities, especially in
Latin America, Africa and
the Middle East. Also on
the economic front, the
report highlights a concern
about increased concen-
tration of wealth among a
small number of people.
