Page 12 - aruba-today-20220901

A12 SCIENCE
Thursday 1 sepTember 2022

Calm before storms? Oddly quiet

Atlantic despite forecasts

“I know there’s something
out there right now,” she
said.
The National Hurricane
Center is watching three
thunderstorm systems in the
Atlantic and gives them all
at least a 50% chance of
becoming a named tropi-
cal storm, with one of them
a likely sounding 80%. But
Colorado State’s Klotzbach
has seen this before this
year and isn’t counting on
A pair of beach goers watch the sun rise over the Atlantic them.
Ocean, Friday, June 10, 2022, in Surfside, Fla. Just late last week, the
Associated Press computer forecast mod-
els predicted three maybe
By SETH BORENSTEIN AND of August with no named four storms forming, includ-
REBECCA SANTANA storm, Colorado State Uni- ing one becoming a ma-
Associated Press versity hurricane research- jor hurricane with winds of
NEW ORLEANS (AP) — It’s er Phil Klotzbach said. Since more than 110 mph (177
been quiet too quiet this 1950, only 1997 and 1961 km/h), Klotzbach said.
Atlantic hurricane season, had no named storms in Then nothing.
meteorologists and resi- August and 1961 then went For the past month and a
dents of storm-prone areas hyperactive in September, half, thunderstorms that
whisper almost as if not to including deadly Carla, he could be seeds of hur-
tempt fate. said. ricanes power off Africa
A record-tying inactive In Lake Charles, Louisiana, looking strong enough “but
August is drawing to a one of the more weather- then they encounter a lot
close and no storms have battered cities in the past of dry air that’s just sitting
formed, even though it is decade, residents have over the Atlantic,” Univer-
peak hurricane season and noticed how quiet the hur- sity of Albany atmospheric
all experts’ pre-season fore- ricane season is so far and scientist Kristen Corbosiero
casts warned of an above it’s almost “testing fate” said.
normal season. Nearly all to bring it up, Mayor Nic “The dry air has really been
the factors that meteorolo- Hunter said. From August the main thing that’s been
gists look for in a busy sea- 2020 to August 2021, the stopping storms from really
son are there. city was hammered by getting going.”
Warm ocean water for two hurricanes Laura and Relative humidity is about
fuel? Check. Delta only six weeks apart, 15% below normal and
Not a lot of wind shear a deep freeze and spring there’s been Saharan dust
that decapitates storms? flooding. Residents still have in there making it drier, Mc-
Check. blue tarps on their roofs. Noldy and Klotzbach said.
La Nina, the natural cooling “I think there’s a lot of The dry air does a couple
of the central Pacific that knocking on wood. There’s things, Corbosiero said.
changes weather patterns a lot of prayers,” Hunter Those thunderstorms be-
worldwide and increases said. “Until the season is come more potent and get
Atlantic storm activity? over, I don’t think any- their energy as warm moist
Check. body’s going to have any air rises off the ocean. The
Yet zero storms formed. sighs of relief.” ocean is warm enough,
Surprised experts point to Certainly not 74-year-old but the dry air causes that
unusual persistent dry air Shirley Verdin, who lives water to evaporate, cool
and a few other factors. about 200 miles (320 ki- and go down, not up, she
But each time they and lometers) away in Bayou said.
computer simulations think Point-Au-Chien, where Hur- That dry air also helps cre-
something is brewing, noth- ricane Ida ripped through ate cross winds about 2
ing comes of it. on Aug. 29 last year. She miles up (3 to 4 kilometers)
“It has been surprisingly now lives in a Federal “that can really do dam-
and freakishly quiet in the Emergency Management age to a storm trying to
Atlantic,” University of Mi- Agency trailer next to her form,” Corbosiero said.
ami hurricane researcher gutted home that will be Matthew Rosencrans, the
Brian McNoldy said, point- demolished down to the National Oceanic and At-
ing out that weak Tropical pilings this weekend so it mospheric Administration’s
Storm Colin fizzled out on can be rebuilt. lead hurricane outlook
July 2 and there’s been There are wisps of potential forecaster, said he sees
nothing since. storm systems swirling in the signs that the dry air is end-
It’ll be the first time since Atlantic that meteorolo- ing and normal moisture will
1941 that the Atlantic has gists are following and so is be returning, which could
gone from July 3 to the end Verdin. Closely. mean more storms. q