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U.S. NEWS Tuesday 4 July 2017

Forecaster says budget cuts could hurt hurricane predictions

at the core of a tropical That’s a big driver for inten- Gulf Coast and Venezu-
storm, and those interac- sification.” ela’s Caribbean coast to
tions happen in an area just Improved forecasts, how- strong winds and heavy
tens of miles (kilometers) ever, can be a double- rains a full day before tropi-
wide and are difficult to ob- edged sword, Franklin said. cal storms Bret and Cindy
serve even with advanced Despite a variety of warn- were officially named.
dropsondes, drones and ings and advisories high- Franklin said those adviso-
satellites, Franklin said. lighting specific storm haz- ries reflect both forecasting
“We’ve always been able ards, such as storm surge improvements and the hur-
to see many or most of the flooding, some people still ricane center’s emphasis
steering factors or steering expect hurricanes to stick on potential risks for com-
features in the atmosphere, to a predicted track, even munities in a storm’s path.
and we get better at it all though forecasts include “As the models got better
the time,” he said. a range of potential out- and as the data got more
“But when it comes to in- comes. plentiful, the models be-
tensity, what’s going to “I find this surprising be- came much more capable
In this Sept. 2, 2010 photo, Chief hurricane forecaster James make a tropical depression cause there’s still so many of forecasting formations of
Franklin prepares for a live update on Hurricane Earl at the Na- strengthen into a hurricane bad forecasts out there — storms,” he said. “If you’re
tional Hurricane Center in Miami. Franklin, a retiring chief of — now you’re talking about ours included — yet we see going to do advisories on
the hurricane specialist unit at the National Hurricane Center in
Miami says further cuts to tropical weather research threaten all kinds of things going on it over and over: people potential tropical cyclones,
to undermine recent improvements in hurricane intensity fore- in the atmosphere on very don’t have a good grasp you really need to have
casts. small scales. You’re talking on just what the forecast a good handle on which
(AP Photo/Lynne Sladky) about the interface be- uncertainties still are,” he ones are going to develop
tween the ocean and the said. The hurricane center and which ones aren’t, so it
By JENNIFER KAY circling a hurricane’s eye. atmosphere. How much issued its first advisories for was that science advance
Associated Press His research with drop- heat is going to get ex- potential tropical cyclones that allowed us to do that.
MIAMI (AP) — Recent sondes — sensor-filled tubes tracted from that ocean? in June, alerting the U.S. q
progress in forecasting the that send weather data as
intensity of hurricanes — they fall through hurricanes
which has lagged behind — helped improve fore-
storm track forecasting — casts of storm tracks and
could be undermined by led NOAA to buy a “hurri-
proposed cuts in federal cane hunter” jet that’s still
funding for tropical weath- used today. He also helped
er research, says the retir- develop new GPS drop-
ing chief of a team of U.S. sondes that showed how
hurricane specialists. eyewall winds vary.
The National Oceanic and Before his June 30 retire-
Atmospheric Administra- ment, ending a 35-year
tion launched the Hurri- NOAA career that includ-
cane Forecast Improve- ed 83 flights breaching hur-
ment Program in 2009 with ricane eyewalls, Franklin
a $13 million budget. Fund- discussed forecasting with
ing has shrunk to less than The Associated Press:
half that, and President Hurricane track forecasts
Donald Trump’s proposed have steadily improved
budget includes further partly because the weath-
cuts to NOAA and the Na- er elements that direct a
tional Weather Service. storm’s path are easy to
“It’s hanging on really by a see, Franklin said. For exam-
thread in terms of funding,” ple, a high-pressure area
said James Franklin, who over the Atlantic known as
oversees the National Hur- the Bermuda High, which
ricane Center team that can nudge storms toward
releases tropical storm fore- land instead of over open
casts and warnings. waters, is hundreds of miles
During his time at NOAA, (kilometers) across.
Franklin was on research However, forecasting inten-
teams that made break- sity has been more difficult
throughs in tropical storm because it depends on the
forecasting and in the un- interactions between the
derstanding of the winds ocean and thunderstorms