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A12 SCIENCE
Wednesday 6 January 2021
Study: Warming already baked in will blow past climate goals
By SETH BORENSTEIN degrees Celsius (2 degrees on the cooler spots staying
AP Science Writer Fahrenheit). that way, but Dessler and
The amount of baked-in "You've got some ... global colleagues say that's not
global warming, from car- warming inertia that's go- likely.
bon pollution already in ing to cause the climate Outside experts said the
the air, is enough to blow system to keep warming, work is based on compel-
past international agreed and that's essentially what ling reasoning, but want
upon goals to limit climate we're calculating," said more research to show that
change, a new study finds. study co-author Andrew it's true. Breakthrough Insti-
But it's not game over be- Dessler, a climate scientist tute climate scientist Zeke
cause, while that amount at Texas A&M University. Hausfather said the new
of warming may be inevi- "Think about the climate work fits better with climate
table, it can be delayed system like the Titanic. It's models than observational
for centuries if the world hard to turn the ship when data.
quickly stops emitting ex- you see the icebergs." Just because the world is
tra greenhouse gases from Dessler and colleagues at bound to get more warm-
the burning of coal, oil and the Lawrence Livermore ing than international goals,
natural gas, the study's au- National Lab and Nanjing that doesn't mean all is lost
thors say. University in China calculat- in the fight against global
For decades, scientists ed committed warming to warming, said Dessler, who
have talked about so- take into account that the cautioned against what he
called "committed warm- world has warmed at differ- called "climate doomers."
ing" or the increase in fu- ent rates in different plac- If the world gets to net zero
ture temperature based on es and that places that carbon emissions soon, 2
past carbon dioxide emis- haven't warmed as fast are degrees of global warming
sions that stay in the atmo- destined to catch up. could be delayed enough
sphere for well over a cen- Places such as the South- so that it won't happen
tury. It's like the distance a ern Ocean, surrounding for centuries, giving soci-
speeding car travels after Antarctica are a bit cooler, ety time to adapt or even
the brakes are applied. and that difference cre- come up with technologi-
But Monday's study in the ates low-lying clouds that cal fixes, he said.
journal Nature Climate The Jan. 10, 2009 file photo shows a flock of geese flying past a reflect more sun away from "If we don't, we're going
smokestack at the Jeffery Energy Center coal power plant near
Change calculates that a Emmitt, Kan. earth, keeping these plac- to blow through (climate
bit differently and now fig- Associated Press es cooler. goals) in a few decades,"
ures the carbon pollution But this situation can't keep Dessler said. "It's really the
already put in the air will ternational science panels, Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahr- going indefinitely because rate of warming that makes
push global temperatures were about a degree Cel- enheit) since pre-industrial physics dictates that cool- climate change so terrible.
to about 2.3 degrees Cel- sius (1.8 degrees Fahren- times, with the more am- er locations will warm up If we got a few degrees over
sius (4.1 degrees Fahren- heit) less than that amount bitious goal of limiting it to more and when they do, 100,000 years, that would
heit) of warming since pre- of committed warming. 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 de- the clouds will dwindle and not be that big a deal. We
industrial times. International climate grees Fahrenheit) added in more heating will occur, can deal with that. But a
Previous estimates, includ- agreements set goals of lim- Paris in 2015. The world has Dessler said. few degrees over 100 years
ing those accepted by in- iting warming to 2 degrees already warmed about 1.1 Previous studies were based is really bad."q
If I've already had the coronavirus, can I get it again?
By The Associated Press Some reinfections have
If I've already had the coro- been confirmed, but two
navirus, can I get it again? new studies suggest that's
It's possible, but such cases very unusual.
seem to be rare. In one, only two out of
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