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34 INTERNATIONAL AWEMainta Diamars, 17 October 2023
Poland’s Political Crossroads:
Potential Outcomes of the Election
POLAND is at a critical juncture following the recent elec- Law and Justice to attempt to form a government, consid-
tion. While the second exit poll suggests the ruling right- ering the parliamentary arithmetic.
wing populist Law and Justice party won the most votes,
it is poised to lose its parliamentary majority. The official In the scenario where no agreement is reached, President
result, expected soon, will clarify the situation. If confirmed, Duda would propose another prime ministerial candidate.
President Andrezj Duda, a former Law and Justice MP, will If this endeavor proves unsuccessful, fresh elections may
have the task of appointing a new prime minister to estab- become a possibility.
lish a government.
A government vacuum extending into November and
Conventionally, the president selects the leader of the largest December, or the prospects of new elections, looms if the
single party, in this case, Law and Justice, to attempt to form unfolding stages align as outlined.
a government and gain a parliamentary vote of confidence. However, forming a united opposition coalition government
However, the ruling party faces challenges in securing a may not be straightforward. It encompasses a broad polit-
majority, while a diverse opposition coalition made up of ical spectrum, from the moderate conservatives of the Third
Civic Coalition, the Third Way, and the Left appears capable Way to some hard-left MPs in the Left. Disagreements arise,
of forming a government with a majority. especially regarding the liberalization of abortion rules and
the influence of the Catholic Church on state institutions.
According to the second exit poll, Law and Justice would secure
198 seats, falling short of the 231 required for a majority. Restoring judicial independence and media pluralism
Even by joining forces with the far-right Confederation party, is a shared commitment among the opposition parties.
they would only muster 212. In contrast, the opposition can Nevertheless, hurdles may emerge, given President Duda’s
count on 248 seats. power to veto legislation and the influence of Poland’s top
If President Duda allows Law and Justice to initiate the court, the Constitutional Tribunal.
government formation process, but it fails, then the parlia-
ment gains a second opportunity to form a government. In essence, Poland is witnessing a political shakeup, and
Should the result corroborate the exit polls, this would favor the outcome remains uncertain. The path ahead may shape
the opposition coalition. the country’s politics, institutions, and relations with the
President Duda also has the option to refrain from inviting European Union in profound ways.
