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U.S. NEWS Wednesday 11 april 2018

Trump slump? International arrivals data may be wrong

By BETH J. HARPAZ
AP Travel Editor
That "Trump slump" we've
been hearing about in
travel may not be as bad it
seems.
The U.S. Department of
Commerce says govern-
ment statistics showing a
decrease in international
arrivals to the United States
may be wrong. Publica-
tion of the data has been
suspended until it can be
revised.
The most recent govern-
ment statistics showed a
nearly 4 percent drop in
international arrivals to the
U.S., January-August 2017,
compared with the same
period in 2016. That was at
odds with data from many
other sectors of the travel In this Jan. 20, 2018, file photo, visitors to the Statue of Liberty stand in line to board a ferry that will
industry showing upward cruise the bay around the statue and Ellis Island in New York.
trends. Associated Press
Experts from around the criticism. Now that those respond to a request for on statistics from Tourism
travel industry applauded
the effort to get the num- statistics are being called comment. Economics, an Oxford Eco-
The government data — nomics company, to count
into question, some won-
bers right. But some cau-
tioned that there is still con- der what's really going on. specifically known as I-94 their visitors using multiple
"Honestly we're not sure overseas arrivals data — is sources of data, including
cern about a Trump slump.
Adam Sacks, president of who to trust here," said a lagging indicator, show- airline passenger numbers
ing statistics from about six and credit card spending.
Jason Clampet, editor-in-
a company called Tourism
Economics, says his compa- chief of Skift.com, a travel months earlier. The reports Sacks, the Tourism Econom-
ics president, noted the
industry site. "The current are put out by the Inter-
ny calculates that the U.S.
had a 2 percent increase political leadership revels in national Trade Administra- "irony" in government statis-
tion's National Travel and tics painting a more nega-
sowing disinformation."
in international arrivals last
year. But that's "underper- Skift reported the suspen- Tourism Office. tive picture than what was
sion of statistics Monday There's been a discrepancy happening. "If you were
forming" because globally,
international travel was up night. The International for months in the downturns thinking about conspiracy
Trade Administration, part reported by the NTTO and theories, that they might
7 percent.
The announcement by the of the Commerce Depart- data from other sectors of cook the books to show
the travel industry. Florida more positive results, it was
ment, quietly made the an-
Department of Commerce
was also met with skep- nouncement Friday, stating reported 116.5 million peo- quite the reverse," he said.
on its website that "non-U.S. ple visiting in 2017 despite But he also said that policy
ticism in some quarters.
For months, critics have citizens traveling on visas Hurricane Irma, up 3.6 per- and rhetoric from the White
to the United States" were cent from 2016. And New House do matter, pointing
blamed the Trump admin-
istration's anti-foreigner "being categorized as U.S. York City had 62.8 million to drops in visitors from the
visitors last year, up 2.3 mil-
Middle East and Mexico. He
residents" in records com-
rhetoric and policies for the
so-called "Trump slump," us- piled by U.S. Customs and lion from 2016, including an credited local tourism or-
Border Protection.
all-time high of 13.1 million ganizations with marketing
ing the government's own
statistics as a basis for the A government official, international visitors. campaigns that "convey a
who was not authorized The hotel industry has also message of welcome" to
to speak for attribution, been booming. "Total U.S. counteract Washington.
told The Associated Press room demand is higher Tori Barnes of the U.S. Travel
on Tuesday that as many than it has ever been," said Association, which repre-
as 4.5 million international Jan Freitag, senior vice sents the travel industry,
travelers may have been president of STR, which said her organization ap-
undercounted from the tracks hotel performance. preciates the government's
end of 2016 through 2017. "We break records every "commitment" to getting
The official said it's possible month." In 2017, hotels sold the statistics right. But she
that some of those travel- 1.23 billion room nights in added: "Even if changes
ers were not staying in the the U.S., up 2.7 percent to the official federal data
U.S. but were merely flying from 2016. reveal stronger numbers of
through an airport here to Freitag warned against po- visitors to the U.S. in 2017
a third country, in which liticizing the Department of than previously reported,
case they should not be Commerce's decision to re- the fact will remain that
counted as arrivals. The sta- analyze the statistics. "The while international travel is
tistics will be revised once data should just be what spiking globally, the U.S. is
the analysis is done. the data is and people losing a share of that grow-
Customs and Border Pro- make mistakes," he said. ing market to our competi-
tection didn't immediately Many local markets rely tors around the world."q