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A12 SCIENCE
Wednesday 25 May 2022

Stormy repeat: NOAA predicts busy

Atlantic hurricane season

tate storms. The warmer
water about half a degree
warmer (0.3 degrees Cel-
sius) than last year in storm-
forming areas, according
to Rosencrans serves as
hurricane fuel. A reduction
in pollution particles in the
air has taken away artificial
cooling in the Atlantic and
a new study links that to in-
creasing storms.
Last week President Joe
Biden also warned the na-
tion about “another tough
hurricane season” coming.
This satellite image provided by the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration shows Hurricane Sam, center right, “We’re seeing these storms
in the Atlantic Ocean, Monday, Sept. 27, 2021, at 3:20 p.m. ET. happen more frequently.
Associated Press They’re lasting longer,”
FEMA Director Deanne
By SETH BORENSTEIN ing to be similar to last year Criswell said in a New York
AP Science Writer and given that you need City press conference.
Federal meteorologists only one bad storm to dra- NOAA says 13 people in the
are forecasting a record- matically affect your life, if city died during Hurricane
shattering seventh straight you fail to plan around this Ida with 11 of them dying in
unusually busy Atlantic hur- outlook, you’re planning flooded basements. q
ricane season. to fail,” NOAA Administra- t is also the 10th anniver-
The National Oceanic and tor Rick Spinrad told The sary of Superstorm Sandy,
Atmospheric Administra- Associated Press Tuesday. a downgraded hurricane
tion predicted Tuesday “You can take this outlook that became one of the
that the summer in the At- to the bank literally when most expensive weather
lantic will produce 14 to it looks to protecting your disasters in American his-
21 named storms, six to 10 property.” Every weather tory with massive flooding
becoming hurricanes and factor pointed to a busier in New York.
three to six turbo-charging season, said Matthew Ros- “We’ve seen such a dra-
into major hurricanes with encrans, lead hurricane matic change in the type
winds greater than 110 season outlook forecaster of weather events that
mph. Even with normals for NOAA’s Climate Predic- could be seen as a result of
shifting upwards to reflect tion Center. He pointed to climate change,” Criswell
more active storm seasons a multi-decade long trend said.
in recent decades, these to more storms in the At- NOAA said there’s a 65%
predictions are above lantic, an active monsoon chance for an “above-
the 30-year average of 14 season in West Africa, a La normal” hurricane season,
named storms, seven hurri- Nina the natural and oc- a 25% chance for a normal
canes and three major hur- casional cooling of parts season and only a one in
ricanes. of the equatorial Pacific 10 chance for an unusually
The National Hurricane that changes weather quiet season.
Center ran out of names worldwide and warmer One key indicator, that
for Atlantic storms in the last than normal ocean tem- takes into account the
two years, with a record- peratures, which scientists number of storms, how
setting 30 named storms say are stoked by climate strong they are and how
in 2020 and 21 last year. change. long they last, is called
In the past five years there Several outside hurricane Accumulated Cyclone
have been more Category experts agree with NOAA Energy index or ACE and
4 and 5 hurricane landfalls that the Atlantic conditions Rosencrans said this year
in the United States than in are ripe for yet another ac- could be as much as dou-
the previous 50 years com- tive hurricane season. They ble what’s been normal
bined. say La Nina reduces wind since 1950. The calculation
This hurricane season “is go- shear that could decapi- is used when determining
what is an average season
and what’s above aver-
age. Because La Nina has
a different effect in the Pa-
cific and conditions usually
are opposite, earlier this
month NOAA predicted a
quieter than normal Pacific
storm season.
Atlantic hurricane season
starts June 1.q