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A2 UP FRONT
Friday 14 July 2023

The House majority is in play next year after a weak GOP midterm showing

From Front likely to play out in Louisi-
ana, giving Democrats an-
By JONATHAN J. COOPER other safe seat.
Associated Press In New York, Democrats are
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. (AP) — hopeful an ongoing lawsuit
Republican Rep. David will allow them to draft a
Schweikert used to win his new political map that tilts
wealthy, suburban Phoe- in their favor. An appeals
nix congressional district court on Thursday ordered
by nearly 30 points. Then new congressional lines to
Donald Trump was elected be drawn, though Repub-
president, and his victories licans pledged to appeal.
started shrinking. But Republicans have the
Schweikert, who won his advantage in North Caro-
last election by just 3,200 lina, where conservatives
votes, is now among the recently took the major-
top 2024 targets for Demo- ity of the state Supreme
crats, who sense better- Court and are expected
than-expected odds of re- to draw new maps that
taking the House majority favor the GOP. The U.S.
they lost last year. Supreme Court just reaf-
After an anemic showing in firmed the court’s power
the midterms, Republicans to get involved.Control of
have virtually no cushion in the House will largely come
their quest to retain control down to staunchly red or
of the House, which was blue states that won’t get
made all the more compli- Rep. David Schweikert, R-Ariz., holding his one-year-old son Matthew, speaks at an Independence much attention from presi-
Day parade on Tuesday, July 4, 2023 in Phoenix.
cated by a surprise U.S. Su- Associated Press dential campaigns.
preme Court decision last More than half of the 18
month that will likely bring terms. Trump is the early Porter in California — are ing the district this time Republican-held districts
two new safely Democratic front-runner for the GOP leaving their House seats to around. Democrats have that Biden won are in New
districts. Democrats need presidential nomination, run for the Senate, improv- already started attacking York and California, two
to pick up just five seats to which could drive up turn- ing the odds for Republi- Schweikert over abortion. states that defied the mid-
control the House. out among his critics and cans who won’t have to The race has attracted in- term Democratic success-
Republicans are counting force vulnerable Repub- run against an incumbent. terest from a crowded field es in much of the rest of the
on a strong showing from licans to take uncomfort- Biden’s lackluster popular- of Democrats, with no obvi- country. Most of the rest
incumbents like Schweikert, able positions. And abor- ity could be a drain on his ous front-runner. are scattered around the
one of 18 GOP lawmak- tion, which helped power party, and prices for gas, Schweikert has walked West — two in Arizona and
ers representing districts Democratic victories in the food and housing remain a fine line, managing to one each in New Mexico
that supported Democrat midterms, remains salient a high. “Democrats are re- avoid associating too and Oregon.
Joe Biden for president in year after the conservative minding voters why they closely with Trump without Strategists who work on
2020. Many are in upscale majority on the Supreme took away the Democrats’ jeopardizing his path to the House races believe sev-
suburbs like Scottsdale that Court eliminated the con- gavels in the first place – GOP nomination. On abor- eral factors were behind
lean conservative but have stitutional right to terminate extreme, unreasonable, tion, he says he opposes it Democrats’ struggles in
rejected Trump and the a pregnancy. and out of touch,” said but believes it should be New York and California,
party he now dominates. “Between overturning Rep. Richard Hudson, chair left to the states. states they usually domi-
In contrast, only five Demo- state-level protections for of the National Republican “The parties have nate. They say voters there
crats represent districts that reproductive freedoms to Congressional Committee, changed,” Schweikert said, were uniquely drawn to
Trump won. “I’ve been Re- prioritizing tax breaks for the GOP’s House race arm. describing the district’s Republican messaging tar-
publican since JFK,” said the wealthiest few and big “Republicans are on of- shifting voting patterns be- geting crime and home-
Roy Ross, a 74-year-old re- corporations, vulnerable fense, recruiting dynamic tween conversations with lessness and, as residents of
tired oil company manager Republicans are signing candidates and out-raising doctors, entrepreneurs and states staunchly supportive
who registered as an inde- their own pink slips ahead the Democrats, putting us a physicist at a neighbor- of abortion rights, were less
pendent when he moved of next November’s elec- in position to grow our ma- hood parade in Arcadia, swayed by fears of losing
to Schweikert’s district from tion,” said Courtney Rice, jority.” one of Phoenix’s most pres- access. Republicans still
Tennessee two years ago. a spokesperson for the After Trump’s 2016 election, tigious enclaves. “These see crime and homeless-
“But the last two elections, Democratic Congressional Schweikert’s district started people want me to fixate ness as potent issues, along
I just said, ‘I can’t do that.’” Campaign Committee, the trending toward the center on their prosperity and not with immigration.
Still, he said, “I can’t say House Democrats’ cam- as some voters who histori- the eccentricities of the vi- “There are two public
that I’m hearing a lot from paign arm. cally backed Republicans rus, the last election, those policy issues that look as
Democrats, either.” Republicans see plenty of reluctantly voted for Dem- sorts of things.” though they could domi-
Schweikert’s fate in Arizo- reasons for optimism. Look- ocrats or left their ballots The U.S. Supreme Court nate next year’s election,
na, and that of the GOP’s ing to expand the playing blank. Redistricting ahead found last month that Ala- abortion and immigration,”
House majority, will come field beyond the 18 districts of the 2022 midterms ac- bama’s congressional map said Dan Schnur, a former
down to the decisions of that voted for Biden, Re- celerated the trend. violated the Voting Rights Republican strategist who
voters like Ross. publicans are targeting 37 Schweikert eked out a vic- Act, a ruling that will require now teaches politics at
Other factors make for a other districts where they tory of less than 1 percent- the state to create a sec- three California universities.
volatile 2024 House land- believe a Democratic in- age point last year against ond majority-Black district “Both of the parties are not
scape and point to terrain cumbent is vulnerable. a relatively unknown rival that strategists in both par- only vulnerable on one of
much more favorable to Two Democrats from swing who got minimal support ties believe will be safely those issues but don’t ap-
Democrats than what they districts — Reps. Elissa Slot- from national Democrats. Democratic. Thanks to the pear to have any clue as to
faced in last year’s mid- kin in Michigan and Katie Neither party will be ignor- ruling, a similar process is how to deal with them.”q