Page 12 - aruba-today-20220511

A12 science
Wednesday 11 May 2022

Earth given 50-50 chance of hitting key

warming mark by 2026

sity climate scientist Nata-
lie Mahowald, who wasn't
part of the forecast teams.
The prediction makes sense
given how warm the world
already is and an addition-
al tenth of a degree Celsius
(nearly two-tenths of a de-
gree Fahrenheit) is expect-
ed because of human-
caused climate change in
the next five years, said cli-
mate scientist Zeke Hausfa-
ther of the tech company
A man and a boy walk across the almost dried up bed of river Stripe and Berkeley Earth,
Yamuna following hot weather in New Delhi, India, Monday,
May 2, 2022. who wasn't part of the fore-
Associated Press cast teams. Add to that
the likelihood of a strong
By SETH BORENSTEIN with what is expected with El Nino — the natural pe-
AP Science Writer climate change," said UK riodic warming of parts of
The world is creeping closer Met Office senior scientist the Pacific that alter world
to the warming threshold Leon Hermanson, who co- weather — which could
international agreements ordinated the report. toss another couple tenths
are trying to prevent, with These forecasts are big of a degree on top tempo-
nearly a 50-50 chance picture global and re- rarily and the world gets to
that Earth will temporarily gional climate predictions 1.5 degrees.
hit that temperature mark on a yearly and seasonal The world is in the second
within the next five years, time scale based on long straight year of a La Nina,
teams of meteorologists term averages and state the opposite of El Nino,
across the globe predict- of the art computer simu- which has a slight global
ed. lations. They are different cooling effect but isn't
With human-made climate than increasingly accurate enough to counter the
change continuing, there's weather forecasts that pre- overall warming of heat-
a 48% chance that the dict how hot or wet a cer- trapping gases spewed by
globe will reach a yearly tain day will be in specific the burning of coal, oil and
average of 1.5 degrees places. natural gas, scientists said.
Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahr- But even if the world hits The five-year forecast says
enheit) above pre-industri- that mark of 1.5 degrees that La Nina is likely to end
al levels of the late 1800s at above pre-industrial times late this year or in 2023.
least once between now — the globe has already The greenhouse effect
and 2026, a bright red sig- warmed about 1.1 degrees from fossil fuels is like put-
nal in climate change ne- (2 degrees Fahrenheit) ting global temperatures
gotiations and science, a since the late 1800s — that's on a rising escalator. El
team of 11 different fore- not quite the same as the Nino, La Nina and a hand-
cast centers predicted for global threshold first set by ful of other natural weather
the World Meteorological international negotiators in variations are like taking
Organization late Monday. the 2015 Paris agreement. steps up or down on that
The odds are inching up In 2018, a major United Na- escalator, scientists said.
along with the thermom- tions science report pre- On a regional scale, the
eter. Last year, the same dicted dramatic and dan- Arctic will still be warming
forecasters put the odds gerous effects on people during the winter at rate
at closer to 40% and a de- and the world if warming three times more than the
cade ago it was only 10%. exceeds 1.5 degrees. globe on average. While
The team, coordinated by The global 1.5 degree the American Southwest
the United Kingdom's Me- threshold is about the world and southwestern Europe
teorological Office, in their being that warm not for are likely to be drier than
five-year general outlook one year, but over a 20- or normal the next five years,
said there is a 93% chance 30- year time period, sever- wetter than normal condi-
that the world will set a re- al scientists said. This is not tions are expected for Afri-
cord for hottest year by the what the report predicts. ca's often arid Sahel region,
end of 2026. They also said Meteorologists can only northern Europe, northeast
there's a 93% chance that tell if Earth hits that aver- Brazil and Australia, the re-
the five years from 2022 to age mark years, maybe a port predicted.
2026 will be the hottest on decade or two, after it is The global team has been
record. Forecasters also actually reached there be- making these predictions
predict the devastating cause it is a long term aver- informally for a decade
fire-prone megadrought in age, Hermanson said. and formally for about five
the U.S. Southwest will keep "This is a warning of what years, with greater than
going. "We're going to see will be just average in a few 90% accuracy, Hermanson
continued warming in line years," said Cornell Univer- said.q