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Tuesday 6 sepTember 2022
Red wave crashing? GOP momentum slips as fall sprint begins

From Front Democrats have shown no The former president
inclination to have any limi- helped his loyalists, most of
By STEVE PEOPLES tation.” whom embraced his con-
AP National Politics Writer On the Republican Party’s spiracy theories about the
NEW YORK (AP) — The pos- broader midterm outlook, 2020 election, win primary
sibility of a great red wave McDaniel said top races elections across the coun-
still looms. were always likely to tight- try throughout the spring
But as the 2022 midterm en, despite the conven- and summer. But it’s un-
elections enter their final tional wisdom that a mas- clear how Trump will help
two-month sprint, leading sive red wave was building. them, if at all, as the elec-
Republicans concede that “Many of these states are tion moves into the fall.
their party’s advantage battleground states,” she “He’s got a choice about
may be slipping even as said. “It’s going to be tight.” what he wants to do. He
Democrats confront their On paper, Republicans clearly has some candi-
president’s weak standing, continue to enjoy tremen- dates that he wanted to
deep voter pessimism and Demonstrators protest about abortion outside the Supreme dous advantages. get through the primaries
the weight of history this fall. Court in Washington, June 24, 2022.Nothing has undermined Beyond the weight of histo- and they did,” Scott said.
The political landscape, the GOP’s momentum more than the Supreme Court’s stunning ry, Democrats are saddled “He’ll make his own deci-
while still in flux, follows decision to end abortion protections, which triggered a swift with Biden’s low favorabil- sion on what he wants to
a string of President Joe backlash even in the reddest of red states over the summer. ity ratings as roughly 7 in 10 do.”
Associated Press
Biden’s legislative victories voters believe the country is At the same time, a dis-
on climate, health care to 20 House seats, which abortion, which he oppos- headed in the wrong direc- proportionate number of
and gun violence, just as would give the GOP a nar- es in all circumstances. tion. Democratic strategists women are registering to
Donald Trump’s hand- row majority in the chamber Mastriano’s campaign acknowledge serious politi- vote. And if recent voting
picked candidates in elec- in November and break up didn’t respond to an inter- cal headwinds as inflation patterns hold, that’s good
toral battlegrounds like Ari- Democrats’ control of the view request for this story. and pessimism surge, but news for Democrats.
zona, Georgia, Ohio and federal government. But Shapiro will launch his first they note gas prices have In at least seven states,
Pennsylvania struggle to many Republicans are los- TV ad of the fall campaign ticked down, pandemic women made up a higher
broaden their appeal. But ing confidence in the high- on Tuesday, casting Mas- worries have waned and share of newly registered
nothing has undermined stakes fight for the Senate triano’s fierce opposition Biden has won major leg- voters following the over-
the GOP’s momentum majority and key governor- to abortion rights and gay islative victories on several turning of Roe v. Wade, ac-
more than the Supreme ships across the nation. marriage as a threat to key issues. cording to an AP analysis of
Court’s stunning decision in In Pennsylvania, Democrat- Pennsylvania’s economy. “Republicans haven’t tak- voter data from L2, a non-
June to end abortion pro- ic gubernatorial candidate The ad is the first spot in a en advantage of the bad partisan data provider.
tections, which triggered a Josh Shapiro argues that $16.9 million television ad- political environment. And In the five weeks after the
swift backlash even in the his focus on public safety, vertising investment the they punted on having any court eliminated the con-
reddest of red states. education, the economy campaign reserved for the agenda or getting anything stitutional right to abortion,
“This midterm looks and and freedom is driving his nine weeks leading up to done,” said Biden pollster women made up 64% of
feels significantly different momentum but concedes Election Day. John Anzalone, who was new Kansas registrations.
than it did six months ago,” that his opponent is also a Republican National Com- far less confident about the Then, on Aug. 2, Kansas
said veteran Republican major factor. mittee Chair Ronna Mc- midterm outlook at the be- voters overwhelmingly re-
pollster Neil Newhouse. The “Folks trust me to get it Daniel acknowledged that ginning of the summer. jected a ballot measure
abortion ruling “has ener- done,” Shapiro, the state the GOP must sharpen its “Historically, this should that would have let state
gized some segments, es- attorney general, told The message on abortion given be a 30- or 40-seat win by lawmakers impose new re-
pecially the Democratic Associated Press. “And the Democrats’ apparent Republicans,” he added. strictions on abortions.
constituency, and it has in fairness, in part, it’s be- momentum. “The entire Republican Par- Trump-backed Republi-
thrown a wrench, at least cause I’m running against “We can’t allow them to ty has been one big mis- cans who oppose abortion
to some extent, into the the guy who’s by far the control the narrative,” Mc- take for the past four or five rights are fighting for mo-
hopes of winning a ton of most extreme and danger- Daniel said in an interview. months.” mentum in several swing
seats.” ous candidate in the na- She emphasized Repub- Senate Republican lead- states.
History suggests Republi- tion.” lican leaders’ record of er Mitch McConnell has A leading Republican Sen-
cans should dominate the In one of the nation’s most supporting exceptions for blamed GOP “candidate ate super PAC recently
November elections. important swing states, Re- abortion in cases of rape, quality” for why his party canceled television ad res-
In the modern era, the publicans nominated Doug incest and the life of the was more likely to win the ervations in Arizona, where
party that holds the White Mastriano as their nominee mother, sidestepping ques- House than the Senate. Blake Masters is running,
House has lost congressio- for governor, even after tions about candidates like Florida Sen. Rick Scott, who while committing $28 mil-
nal seats in virtually every learning about his leading Mastriano, Georgia Senate leads the Senate GOP lion to help Trump loyalist
first-term president’s first role in Trump’s push to over- nominee Herschel Walker campaign arm, sees it dif- JD Vance in Ohio, a state
midterm election. Ronald turn the 2020 election. and Florida Sen. Marco Ru- ferently. Trump carried by 8 points in
Reagan lost 26 House seats, The state senator and re- bio, who oppose such ex- “He and I clearly have a the last election. In Pennsyl-
Bill Clinton lost 52, Barack tired military officer helped ceptions. disagreement on this. I vania, there are concerns
Obama 63 and Trump 40. organize the state’s effort “I’m not going to speak think we’ve got great can- that Mastriano is drag-
Only George W. Bush’s Re- to submit fake presidential about every candidate didates,” Scott told the AP, ging down the rest of the
publican Party enjoyed a electors beholden to Trump and where they’re at,” Mc- citing opportunities to chal- Republican ticket, while
modest eight-seat gain in and was seen outside the Daniel said. “But the past lenge Democrats in blue Trump-endorsed GOP Sen-
his first midterm, coming af- Capitol as pro-Trump dem- four Republican presidents states like Colorado and ate nominee Mehmet Oz
ter the Sept. 11 terrorist at- onstrators attacked police since Roe believe in the ex- Washington state. “I think is struggling with residency
tacks. on Jan. 6, 2021. He has also ception, and that is where we’re doing fine.” questions. And in Georgia,
Nine weeks before Election alienated moderate voters I think a lot of the Ameri- Scott did acknowledge Walker is facing difficult
Day, leading operatives in and even some Republi- can people are, accord- some uncertainty involving questions about his past
both parties expect Repub- cans with divisive positions ing to polling. But they also Trump’s role in the coming and his opposition to abor-
licans to pick up roughly 10 on several issues, including believe in limitations, and weeks. tion in all cases.q