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SCIENCEFriday 11 March 2016
Feds: Still hope for El Nino drenching Southern California
BY SETH BORENSTEIN In this March 2, 2016 photo, Ed Heinlein works on his property to prevent possible rain flooding at caused snow to melt early,
AP SCIENCE WRITER the back of his suburban home in Azusa, Calif. El Nino has so far left much of California in the dust, hurting water storage even
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Even failing to bring the legendary storms linked to the periodic ocean-warming phenomenon. more. And statewide reser-
though Southern California voirs are at 72 percent of
hasn’t gotten the drought- in a NOAA webinar. So the for water storage, added through, it is best to be average.
busting rainy windfall some absence of lots of rain in NOAA scientist Sarah Kap- more than 100 percent of Still, Southern California
might have expected from the region “shouldn’t be nick. what is needed to get the gets much of its water from
El Nino, federal scientists overly alarming.” But some of the numbers region through the summer the north, where some
hold out hope for the next There’s still six to eight more aren’t too hopeful. Water and fall. Northern California mountain ranges are full of
several weeks. weeks, Hoerling said. managers judge a season has 86 percent. Statewide, snow and some reservoirs
Central and Northern Cali- “We’re still holding out by how much is water avail- the snowpack average is are well above normal, Ho-
fornia have gotten more hope” for late snow to add able from snowpack on 79 percent. erling said.
heavy rain, especially in re- to melting and diminished April 1, and after a drought Making matters worse, she
cent weeks. Southern Cali- snow packs that are crucial like California has been said, record warmth has But they both said this
fornia hasn’t quite been strong El Nino hasn’t quite
so soaked. But National measured up to past big
Oceanic and Atmospheric ones when it comes to pro-
Administration scientists say viding rain and snow. And
their turn may still yet come. the precipitation is need-
Traditionally Southern Cali- ed more than ever be-
fornia gets its downpours cause California suffered
from El Ninos later, in the through a record, four-year
spring, said NOAA research drought, they said.
scientist Martin Hoerling. El Each El Nino is different
Nino is the natural warm- and “while it shifts the odds
ing of parts of the equato- (in favor of lots of rain) it
rial Pacific that changes doesn’t guarantee an out-
weather worldwide, includ- come,” Hoerling said.
ing often bringing more Some forecasts are calling
rain to California, where it is for El Nino to end in coming
needed after four years of months with the possibility
drought. of a flip side, a La Nina, in
In the Southern California the fall. Historically, that has
spring during an El Nino, meant snow in California
“the odds of being very decreases and it increases
wet double,” Hoerling said further north, Kapnick said.
