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A6 WORLD NEWS
Friday 27 November 2020
'Why now?' Dismay as U.S. considers troop pullout from Somalia

By CARA ANNA is "badly off track," said the
NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — No new report by the Depart-
country has been involved ment of Defense inspector
in Somalia's future as much general.
as the United States. Now Somali forces cannot con-
the Trump administration is tain the al-Shabab threat
thinking of withdrawing the on its own, the report said.
several hundred U.S. mili- They still rely on the interna-
tary troops from the Horn of tional community for finan-
Africa nation at what some cial support, and yet they
experts call the worst pos- "sometimes go unpaid for
sible time. months."
Three decades of chaos, Maybe a U.S. withdrawal
from warlords to al-Qaida would lead the AMISOM
affiliate al-Shabab to the force to adjust its own with-
emergence of an Islamic drawal timeline "more real-
State-linked group, have istically," Mahmood said.
ripped apart the country The U.S. has been the most
that only in the past few engaged security partner
years has begun to find its in Somalia "willing to get
footing. The U.S. Embassy down and dirty," he add-
returned to Somalia just last ed. But no other country
year, 28 years after diplo- appears to have the will-
mats and staffers fled. ingness to replace what
Somalia faces a tense A U.S. Army soldier assigned to Site Security Team Task Force Guardian, 1st Battalion, 186th Infan- U.S. forces are doing on the
try Brigade Combat Team, provides security for a C-130J Super Hercules from the 75th Expedition-
election season that begins ary Airlift Squadron (EAS) at an unidentified location in Somalia Wednesday, June 10, 2020. ground
in the next few weeks to Associated Press And a withdrawal of both
decide the presidency and the U.S. and AMISOM would
parliament. United Nations year. providing Danab with air Gaid said: "These external risk leaving the impression
experts say al-Shabab, sup- The U.S. Africa Command cover and intelligence, forces will always leave." that "Somalia increasingly
porting its 5,000 to 10,000 has seen a "definitive shift" Gaid said. A U.S. withdrawal will play can rely less and less on
fighters on a rich diet of this year in al-Shabab's fo- "Danab was expanding, into that narrative. external security partners,"
extorting businesses and cus to attack U.S. interests that's why this is so shock- Gaid said she doesn't see Mahmood said.
civilians, is improving its in the region, a new report ing," she said. "Is it possible any other country stepping POLITICAL STABILITY
bomb-making skills. And by the Department of De- to move forward with that into the U.S. military's role, Somalia is on the brink of
an ever bigger military fense inspector general plan now?" though a withdrawal would elections, with the parlia-
force, the African Union's said Wednesday — and the Danab units are now oper- open space for powers like mentary vote scheduled in
19,000-strong AMISOM, has command says al-Shabab ational in four of Somalia's Russia and China. Somalia December and the presi-
begun its own withdrawal is Africa's most "dangerous" five member states, the U.S. also has some 1,500 spe- dential one in February.
from a country whose forc- and "imminent" threat. military says, and they con- cial forces that have been What had meant to be the
es are widely considered Here's what's at stake: ducted about 80% of the trained by Turkish troops, country's first one-person-
unready to assume full re- COUNTERTERRORISM Somali national army's of- she said, but "they don't one-vote election in de-
sponsibility for security. "The first thing ... it's disas- fensive forces in the quarter benefit from Turkish advisers cades instead remains lim-
It is not clear whether Presi- trous for Somalia's security ending Sept. 30 and "nearly on the ground." ited by disputes between
dent Donald Trump will or- sector, it just causes that first all" operations against al- SECURITY the federal government
der the withdrawal of the panic reaction: You know, Shabab. Without U.S. forces, al- and regional ones — which
some 700 U.S. military forc- why now?" said Samira The Danab forces also Shabab "will find it easier to the U.S. has said also weak-
es from Somalia, following Gaid, a Somali national se- serve as a model for how overrun AMISOM, let alone ens command and control
his orders for Afghanistan curity specialist who served the rest of Somali military the Somali national army," of Somali forces.
and Iraq, or whether the re- as senior security adviser to forces can develop to be Vanda Felbab-Brown, co- At least keep U.S. forces in
ported urge will pass before the prime minister and spe- "more meritocracy and less director of the African Se- Somalia until after the elec-
he leaves office in January. cial adviser to the head of clan-focused," said Omar curity Initiative at the Brook- tions, Felbab-Brown wrote
But the idea is taken seri- AMISOM. "Especially since Mahmood, an analyst ings Institution, told an on- this week, warning of pos-
ously, even as U.S. drone over the past three and half with the International Crisis line event this week. And sible post-election violence
strikes are expected to con- years in particular the secu- Group. with neighboring Ethiopia's or al-Shabab taking ad-
tinue in Somalia against al- rity sector really improved, The loss of U.S. forces is conflict increasing pressure vantage of any chaos.
Shabab and IS fighters from and we tried to work close- widely seen as a gain for to withdraw more Ethiopian Even though U.S. forces
neighboring Djibouti and ly with" the U.S., she told The al-Shabab, and for the far forces from Somalia, a U.S. don't provide election se-
Kenya — where al-Shabab Associated Press. smaller presence of hun- troop withdrawal "is really curity, "our problem is, with
carried out a deadly attack Recent progress includes dreds of IS-affiliated fight- just the worst time." the U.S. focused on a draw-
against U.S. forces early this a "war council" between ers in Somalia's north. "From The support that U.S. forc- down of troops, it would
the U.S. and Somali govern- the al-Shabab perspective, es give AMISOM is "huge," not be focused on how the
ments, she said, where the they just need to hold out," Gaid said, including as a elections are going politi-
U.S. helps to draw up mili- Mahmood said, and they key interlocutor with Somali cally," Gaid said.
tary plans. "We call them might even ask themselves forces. And with AMISOM The U.S. has been one of
Somali-led operations, but what need there is for any also drawing down by the the most vocal actors on
really the U.S. is hand-hold- potential Taliban-style ne- end of next year, "it's a Somalia's election process,
ing us through it." gotiations. tricky time." she said. "We were all ex-
The U.S. military also trains Al-Shabab's messaging has The U.S. has said implemen- pecting after November
Somalia's elite Danab spe- always stressed the extrem- tation of the plan for So- that the U.S. would be
cial forces that now num- ist group's staying power, mali forces to take over the clear on a lot of stuff. Now it
ber around 1,000, and is national security specialist country's security next year seems we have to wait."q