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A4 U.S. NEWS
Saturday 28 december 2019
Continued from Front After the 2006 national It was the culmination of
Iowans unseated two Re- wave swept Democrats two decades of shifting ed-
publican U.S. House mem- into total Statehouse con- ucational attainment with
bers in 2018 during midterm trol, Obama's combination political implications.
elections where more Iowa of generational change, Since 2000, the number of
voters in the aggregate his appeal to anti-Iraq War Iowans with at least a col-
chose a Democrat for fed- sentiment and the historic lege degree in urban and
eral office for the first time opportunity to elect the first suburban areas grew by
in a decade. African American president twice the rate of rural ar-
"I think that leaves little made Iowa an easy win. eas, according to U.S. Cen-
question Iowa is up for "We were like a conquer- sus data and an Iowa State
grabs next year," veteran ing army, prepared to ne- University study.
Iowa Democratic cam- gotiate terms of surrender," Since 2016 alone, regis-
paign consultant Jeff Link said Cedar Rapids Demo- tered Democrats in Dallas
In this June 11, 2019, photo, President Donald Trump arrives to said. crat Dale Todd, an early County have increased
speak at the Republican Party of Iowa's annual dinner in West There's more going on in Obama supporter and ad- 15%, to Republicans' 2%.
Des Moines, Iowa, Tuesday. Few states have changed politi- Iowa that simply a merely viser. Republicans still outnumber
cally with the head-snapping speed of Iowa. cyclical swing. Today, in the state Capitol, Democrats, but indepen-
Associated Press Once-GOP-leaning sub- there are reminders of how dent voters have leaped
urbs and exurbs have much the ground had shift- by 20% and now outnum-
swelled with college-edu- ed since those heady days. ber Republicans.
cated adults in the past de- Republicans today control "There is now a third front,"
cade, giving rise to a new all of state government for Gronstal said.
class of rising Democratic the first time in 20 years, in Though Trump's return to
leaders. line with takeovers in near- the ballot in 2020 shakes
"I don't believe it was tem- by states that were com- up the calculus, his approv-
porary," Iowa State Univer- pleted earlier but traced al in Iowa has remained
sity economist David Sw- their beginnings to the around 45% or lower, typi-
enson said of Democrats' same turbulent summer of cally problematic for an in-
2018 gains in suburban Des 2009. cumbent.
Moines and Cedar Rapids. On a Wednesday in August Another warning for Trump,
"I think it is the inexorable that year, throngs flocked GOP operative John Stine-
outcome of demographic to Grassley's typically quiet man noted, is The Des
and educational shifts." annual county visits to pro- Moines Register/CNN/Me-
The Democratic caucuses test his work with Demo- diacom Iowa Poll's Novem-
will provide a test of how crats on health care legis- ber finding that only 76% of
broad the change may be. lation. self-identified Republicans
For now, that is not a wide- The previous April, Iowa's said they would definitely
ly held view, as Iowa has Supreme Court unanimous- vote to re-elect him next
shown signs of losing its ly declared same-sex mar- year.
swing state status. riage legal. A year later, With no challenger and 10
In the 1980s, it gave rise to Christian conservatives months until the election, a
a populist movement in ru- successfully campaigned lot can change.
ral areas from the left, the to oust the three Supreme "Still, that's one in four of
ascent of the religious right Court justices facing reten- your family that's not locked
as a political force and the tion. down," Stineman said.
start of an enduring rural- By 2016, Republicans had Democratic turnout in 2018
urban balance embodied completed their long- leaped from the previous
by Republican Sen. Chuck sought statehouse take- midterm in 2014, accord-
Grassley and Democratic over, in part by triumphant- ing to the Iowa Secretary
Sen. Tom Harkin. ly beating longtime Senate of State.
After 30 years of Republi- Majority Leader Mike Gron- Republican turnout also
can dominance in Iowa's stal. rose, but by a smaller mar-
governor's mansion, Vilsack The answer for Democrats gin.
was elected in 1998 as a in Iowa is much the same "I think the success in the
former small-city mayor as the rest of the country: midterms kind of made
and pragmatic state sena- growing, vote-rich suburbs. people on the Democratic
tor. Dallas County, west of side believe that 'we can
An era of partisan balance Des Moines, has grown do it,'" said J. Ann Selzer,
in Iowa took hold, punctu- by 121% since 2000. Last who has conducted The
ated by narrow Iowa wins year, long-held Republican Des Moines Register's Iowa
by Democrat Al Gore in Iowa House districts in Des Poll for more than 25 years.
2000 and George W. Bush Moines' western suburbs fell Perhaps, but Trump has his
in 2004. to Democrats. believers, too.q