Page 12 - aruba-today-20220831

A12 science
Wednesday 31 august 2022

Dangerous heat predicted to hit 3

times more often in future

all ecosystem, said Zep-
petello, who did much of
the research at University
of Washington state during
the warming-charged 2021
heat wave that shattered
records and killed thou-
sands.
"Sadly, the horrific predic-
tions shown in this study
are credible," climate sci-
entist Jennifer Francis of
the Woodwell Climate
Research Center, who
Nicole Brown wipes sweat from her face while setting up her
beverage stand near the National Mall on July 22, 2022, in was not part of the study
Washington. team, said in an email.
Associated Press "The past two summers
have provided a window
BY SETH BORENSTEIN Zeppetello and colleagues into our steamy future, with
AP Science Writer used more than 1,000 com- lethal heat waves in Eu-
What's considered officially puter simulations to look at rope, China, northwestern
"dangerous heat" in com- the probabilities of two dif- North America, India, the
ing decades will likely hit ferent levels of high heat south-central U.S., the U.K.,
much of the world at least -- heat indexes of 103 de- central Siberia, and even
three times more often as grees (39.4 Celsius) and New England. Already hot
climate change worsens, above 124 degrees (51 places will become unin-
according to a new study. Celsius), which are danger- habitable as heat indices
In much of Earth's wealthy ous and extremely danger- exceed dangerous thresh-
mid-latitudes, spiking tem- ous thresholds according olds, affecting humans and
peratures and humidity to the U.S. National Weath- ecosystems alike. Areas
that feel like 103 degrees er Service. They calculated where extreme heat is now
(39.4 degrees Celsius) or for the years 2050 and 2100 rare will also suffer increas-
higher -- now an occasion- and compared that to how ingly, as infrastructure and
al summer shock — statisti- often that heat happened living things are ill-adapted
cally should happen 20 to each year across the world to the crushing heat."
50 times a year by mid-cen- from 1979 to 1998. The study focuses on the
tury, said a study Monday The study found a three- to heat index and that's smart
in the journal Communica- ten-fold increase in 103-de- because it's not just heat
tions Earth & Environment. gree heat in the mid-lati- but the combination with
By 2100, that brutal heat tudes even in the unlikely humidity that hurts health,
index may linger for most best-case scenario of glob- said Harvard School of Pub-
of the summer for places al warming limited to only lic Health professor Dr. Re-
like the U.S. Southeast, the 3.6 degrees (2 degrees nee Salas, who is an emer-
study's author said. Celsius) since pre-industrial gency room physician.
And it's far worse for the times -- the less stringent of "As the heat index rises,
sticky tropics. The study said two international goals. it becomes harder and
a heat index considered There's only a 5% chance harder to cool our bod-
"extremely dangerous" for warming to be that low ies," Salas, who wasn't part
where the feels-like heat and that infrequent, the of the research team, said
index exceeds 124 degrees study found. What's more in an email. "Heat stroke is
(51 degrees Celsius) — now likely, according to the a potentially deadly form
something that rarely hap- study, is that the 103-de- of heat illness that occurs
pens — will likely strike a gree heat will steam the when body temperatures
tropical belt that includes tropics "during most days of rise to dangerous levels."
India one to four weeks a each typical year" by 2100. The study is based on
year by century's end. Chicago hit that 103 de- mathematical probabilities
"So that's kind of the scary gree heat index level only instead of other climate re-
thing about this," said four times from 1979 to search that looks at what
study author Lucas Zep- 1998. But the study's most happens at various carbon
petello, a Harvard climate likely scenario shows Chi- pollution levels. Because of
scientist. "That's something cago hitting that hot-and- that, University of Pennsyl-
where potentially billions sticky threshold 11 times a vania climate scientist Mi-
of people are going to be year by the end of the cen- chael Mann is more skepti-
exposed to extremely dan- tury. cal of this research. It also
gerous levels of heat very Heat waves are one of doesn't take into account
regularly. So something the new four horsemen landmark U.S. climate leg-
that's gone from virtually of apocalyptic climate islation that President Joe
never happening before change, along with sea Biden signed earlier this
will go to something that is level rise, water scarcity month or new efforts by
happening every year." and changes in the over- Australia, he said.q