Page 45 - July - August 2019 - v3_june_july_2009_Neat

No E.T. Life Yet? 45

No E.T. Life Yet?

That Might Be A Warning.

By Kelsey Johnson

It barely got a mention in the media, but in June
the U.S. Navy briefed members of Congress on
UFOs. The fact that we live in a culture where
this is only a minor news story gives me pause;
if someday extraterrestrial life actually visits
Earth, the story will least make the top 10 list of
"Most Significant Things That Have Happened
in Human History." To be fair, the briefing was
classified, so we don't actually know what
Congress was told. But according to a 2015
survey, 56 percent of Americans already
"believe" in UFOs, regardless of what Navy
pilots may or may not have seen.
For many people, "UFO" is synonymous
with aliens, but it's worth reminding ourselves
that it literally stands for "unidentified flying things work. forward 40 years, and astronomers identify a
object." An unidentified object could be just Since 1947 there have been three previously unknown comet that was passing by
about anything, because … well, it's (known) formal investigations into UFOs: back in 1977 and could have accounted for the
unidentified. One of our mottos in science is that Project Sign (1947 –1949), Project Grudge "Wow!" signal. Does this new discovery rule out
"extraordinary claims require extraordinary (1949–1951), and Project Blue Book (1952– an E.T. origin? Nope. But Occam's razor
evidence." This doesn't mean that crazy- 1969). As part of Project Blue Book, the Condon suggests that a comet that we know exists—and
sounding things are never true; it means that we Committee was convened in 1966, including we know could have caused the signal—seems a
should practice due diligence when thinking such luminaries as the late Carl Sagan, and tad more likely.
about overturning well-understood or well- tasked with carrying out an independent analysis Extraterrestrial life was also on the table
tested ideas. This motto also suggests we keep of available data on UFOs. Perhaps not as an option in 1967 when Jocelyn Bell Burnell
an eye on Occam's razor—the idea that the surprising, but disappointing to many, the observed short radio pulses coming from a fixed
simplest explanation is the most likely to be true. committee did not find that any of the UFO location in the sky—and repeating. Because the
Are ridiculously crazy and complex reports they examined required extraordinary pulses repeated, it was possible to rule out
ideas sometimes correct? Absolutely. Should we explanations. It is, however, interesting to note conventional explanations such as stars, or
jump to the conclusion that they're correct that roughly 6 percent of the 10,147 UFO Earth-based emissions. As Burnell writes about
without ruling out more vanilla explanations? reports the U.S. Air Force investigated were the potential of E.T. life, "obviously the idea had
Probably not. When it comes to UFOs, we might classified as "unidentified." That is still over 600 crossed our minds and we had no proof that it
ask ourselves whether it is more likely that E.T. cases. was an entirely natural radio emission." With the
life exists, took an interest in us, traveled who- Of these unidentified cases, the Condon E.T. hypothesis still on the table, the radio
knows-how-far across the universe, buzzed Committee concluded that, "most of the cases so source was even nicknamed LGM-1 ("Little
through our skies, and then disappeared—or, listed are simply those in which the information Green Men 1"). But the source did repeat, and
more implausible still, crashed in Roswell, New available does not provide an adequate basis for more of these repeating radio sources were
Mexico? Or is it perhaps more likely that analysis." Some cases, however, raised found, and hypotheses could be tested. What
experimental military aircraft or poorly eyebrows. For example, the Lakenheath- were these mysteries signals? Burnell had
understood natural phenomena are responsible Bentwaters Incident, which took place in discovered pulsars, extraordinary dense and
for things we see in the sky but can't identify? England in 1956, involved both the U.S. Air spinning remnants of supernova. While an E.T.
Without "extraordinary" evidence, I'm Force and the Royal Air Force. About this case, life origin for the signals was ruled out, the
going with the second option. That being said, the committee reported, "in conclusion, discovery of pulsars has been of such
most scientists I know (including myself) think although conventional or natural explanations importance to understanding our universe that
that finding extraordinary evidence for E.T. life certainly cannot be ruled out, the probability of they have resulted in two Nobel Prizes.
would be one of the most paradigm-shifting such seems low in this case and the probability I will admit that our repeated failures to
discoveries in all of human history. But we also that at least one genuine UFO was involved detect signs of E.T. is a downer. One reason this
have to be mindful of confirmation bias—the appears to be fairly high." What actually gets to me is because of something called
well-documented fact that the more we want happened? Who knows? This was over 60 years "Fermi's Paradox." In a nutshell, given some
something to be true, the more likely we are to ago. Our scientific technology was far behind basic assumptions about life, one could
believe it, and the less likely we are to apply a what it is now. Then again, so was our ability to reasonably conclude that our galaxy ought to be
truly critical eye. But in fact, as I often tell my pull off hoaxes. teeming with it. So as Enrico Fermi famously
students, the more we want something to be true, Much of the problem with cases like asked: "Where are they?" There are three main
the more critical we have to try to be. Or as Lakenheath-Bentwaters is that they are not categories of solutions: First, life could be really,
Richard Feynman put it: "The first principle is repeatable. When something happens just once really, really hard to get going. Our very limited
that you must not fool yourself—and you are the and never again, it is really hard to test our evidence on Earth suggests this is not so; life
easiest person to fool." hypotheses—and the bedrock of the scientific arose on our planet almost as soon as it possibly
In my view, even if unidentified flying method is that a hypothesis simply must be could have. But a singular data point is not
objects are terrestrial in origin, they warrant testable to be handled scientifically. Another sufficient. We can't at present rule out that we
understanding. Hoaxes aside, studying famed example of a nonrepeating and are utterly alone in our galaxy, if not the entire
genuinely unidentified objects could give us unresolved case happened in 1977 with the cosmos. That is depressing.
new scientific insights, or provide information "Wow!" signal. An extremely strong narrow-
on threats to national security. Just because band radio signal was detected by the Big Ear (Continued on Page 49)
something is unlikely doesn't mean it isn't radio telescope at almost exactly the frequency
worthy of serious academic study. In fact, I of a fundamental hydrogen transition line The ‘X’ Zone TV Channel
would argue that the more rare a phenomenon is, (1420.41 MHz), which we expect an E.T. Exclusively On
the more insight it is likely to give us into how civilization might use to communicate. Fast- SimulTV - www.SimulTV.com