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Predictive Analytics using Genetic Programming            175

                                                GENETIC PROGRAMMING


                          Evolutionary algorithms are search and optimization procedures that are motivated
                       by the principles of natural genetics and natural selection (Deb, 2001). This concept was
                       first  developed  during  the  70’s  by  John  Holland  and  his  students  at  the  University  of
                       Michigan, Ann Arbor (Deb, 1989). The goals of their research have been twofold: (1) to
                       abstract  and  rigorously  explain  the  adaptive  processes  of  natural  systems,  and  (2)  to
                       design artificial systems software that retains the important mechanics natural selection
                       (Goldberg,  1989).  Eventually,  this  approach  has  led  to  important  discoveries  and
                       advancements in both natural and artificial systems science.
                          Over  the  last  two  decades,  EAs  have  been  extensively  used  as  search  and
                       optimization  tools  in  various  problem  domains,  including  science,  commerce  and
                       engineering  (Deb,  2001).  These  algorithms  have  been  found  to  be  very  successful  in
                       arriving  at  an  optimal/near-optimal  solution  to  complex  optimization  problems,  where
                       traditional search techniques fail or converge to a local optimum solution. The primary
                       reasons for their success are their wide applicability, ease of use, and global dimension.
                       There are several variations of EAs. Blum et al. (2011) stated that standard EA includes a
                       set of principles and a common cycle. This set of principles is explained as follows:

                          1.  Populations of individuals which represent solutions or strategies
                          2.  Populations  change  dynamically  due  to  the  different  “natural”  processes  of
                              reproduction and generations
                          3.  An individual survives and reproduces according to the “advantages” given by its
                              level of fitness.
                          4.  New generations resemble their parents but are not identical.

                          EAs follow a cycle similar to the one depicted in Figure 1. An initial population is
                       built based on random creation of individuals with their respective chromosomes. Some
                       individuals  of  this  initial  population  can  be  generated  using  metaheuristics  and  other
                       optimization  engineering  schemes.  The  population  is  mapped  from  the  genetic
                       representation (i.e., chromosome instance) to a fitness based one (representation required
                       to be assessed by the environment). That means that the particular individual needs to be
                       represented in a different way to obtain the value of the objective function (as given by
                       the assessment process). For example, a chromosome instance (representing a particular
                       individual)  can  represent  now  a  discrete-event  simulation  program  that  needs  to  be
                       executed to obtain the value of the objective function. If the performance criterion is met,
                       this  cycle  (i.e.,  evolution)  stops.  Otherwise,  the  evolutionary  cycle  continues  with  the
                       generation  of  the  next  population.  That  means  that  after  the  values  of  the  objective
                       function  are  obtained  for  each  member  of  the  population,  the  fitness  values  are
                       determined in a relative manner. The mating pool is formed by the members which have
                       the best relative fitness.
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