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to ultimate loss estimates, it is important to review the
data. The objective of this review is to understand the
data in terms of :
a. rate of development,
b. smoothness of development,
c. presence of large losses, and
d. volume of data.

117. As can be seen from the process of selection of
development factors the analyst should be able to
recognize:
a. normal levels of random fluctuation in
developments,
b. aberrations in development patterns and be able to
isolate their causes, and determine if they are
ongoing or one time changes in development.
c. Trends in loss development patterns.

118. The Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method estimates
ultimate loss by adding together actual reported loss with
expected future incurred development. Expected future
incurred development relies on expected losses and
selected loss development factors.

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