Page 161 - Risk Management in current scenario

Is extreme event predictable

E xtreme events do not come out all of sudden, its trend and

information are always available through data points. However,
those data points are often ignored and believed that nothing will
happen, but that ignorance has been proved to be costly in the past. If
any of those past extreme events are analyzed, it will be found that the
vital signs were available but ignored resulting in disaster/crisis.

In the sinking of Titanic in 1912, it was the "overconfidence" on the ability
of the ship not to sink keeping few lifeboats and that too for other sinking
ships.

The Chernobyl disaster in 1986 in USSR was a combination of a design
fault, safety system intentionally turning off and safety negligence.

In the Bhopal gas tragedy in India in 1984 where thousands of people
died and health of millions got affected due to the emission of poisonous
gas in the atmosphere. The prime causes were a reduction in
maintenance expenses by the management leading to poor upkeep of
the plant. The Indian government and local activists argued that slack
management and deferred maintenance created a situation where
routine pipe maintenance caused a backflow of water into a tank,
triggering the disaster. Union Carbide Corporation contended water
entered the tank through an act of sabotage.

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