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Holding Asset class Allocation (%)
Treasury Wine Estates Limited Ordinary Fully Paid Australian Equities 1.2
Western Asset Global Bond Fund – Class M International Fixed Interest 3.0
Yarra Emerging Leaders Fund - Class A Australian Equities 5.0
Quarterly manager commentary
Market Update
The December quarter saw a strong period for markets locally and globally, providing a positive end to a very tough calendar year where almost
nothing worked outside of cash and private assets (which have yet to be revalued).
The positive quarter in markets was driven by improvements (or no worsening) of risks surrounding central bank policy tightening, inflation, and China
lockdowns, with investors comfortable enough to dip their toes back in the water with plenty of assets showing valuation appeal.
Whilst central banks continued tightening policy in the quarter by raising rates and shrinking their balance sheets, many did slow the pace of
tightening in addition to comments that seemed to indicate that they had done most of the heavy lifting.
That was somewhat confirmed by inflation data in the US abating whilst leading economic indicators continued to weaken, resulting in rising
recessionary concerns for 2023. Housing markets locally and globally capitulated, with data worsening, whilst consumption and labour markets
remained way too strong for any sort of central bank pivot, Investors can only hope.
President Xi of China was re-appointed, now as their “leader for life”, delivering a speech that the West interpreted as being hostile to non-China
interests. Not long after that event, China swiftly moved meaningfully to a COVID reopening plan with restrictions easing over the quarter, finally giving
investors comfort that this reopening would be sustained. This put a rocket under Chinese assets, and Asian and emerging market assets more
broadly, which had been under significant pressure for the better part two years as China lockdowns persisted.
There was no major new or positive news out of Russia / Ukraine with fighting continuing. Further agreements were made to let more agricultural
products out through the Black Sea thus assisting global supply constraints whilst the European proposed price caps on Russian oil were adopted by
the G7 countries.
Lastly, new leaders came to power in the UK and Brazil, with the UK debacle one for the history books whilst Brazil moved back to the Left. In the US,
the Republicans won the balance of power in the House, largely as expected, giving President Biden a much harder path from which to lead.
Portfolio update
Portfolio returns for the December quarter were positive and would have been stronger had it not been for the month of December where negative
investor sentiment returned. The Portfolio underperformed the benchmark as Australian equities significantly outperformed global equities, property
lagged broader equities and infrastructure, and the Australian dollar pushed higher.
On the asset allocation side, our weighting to global equities hurt relative returns as Australian equities performed very strongly whilst the rising
Australian dollar also didn’t help unhedged positioning across equities and property. The allocation to property also hurt relative returns as economic
risks rose, as did the allocation to Australian small companies which performed well but still underperformed larger companies. Bonds outperformed
cash, assisting portfolio returns, as did the overweight to infrastructure versus property.
On the investment selection side, relative returns were hurt by investment selection within Australian equities as utilities and materials sectors rallied
strongly, whilst investment selection within global equities and bonds assisted returns, particularly within the latter.
On an absolute basis, the best and worst performing investments were as follows:
Top 3:
Domino’s Pizza
Seven Group Holdings
Mineral Resources
Bottom 3:
Downer EDI
James Hardie Industries
Lendlease Group
Portfolio Changes
There were no changes to the portfolio during the quarter.
Market Outlook
Given the above, we expect economic data to continue to worsen in Q1 2023 as central banks remain committed to bringing inflation under control.
Corporate earnings season will be watched as closely as ever for any signs that earnings may need to be revised lower yet again. We think inflationary
pressures will continue to abate but not at a fast enough pace to stop central banks from tightening policy again. We, like others, will be watching