Page 4 - Private Wealth Professional Assertive PDF Factsheet
P. 4
Portfolio Update
The Portfolio’s return for the December quarter was strong, but softer than seen in recent quarters as investors digested declining US rate cut
expectations resulting in rising bond yields, a surging US dollar, and a US election result that likely makes for a very interesting 2025.
Individual asset classes were affected by rising bond yields and/or a rising US dollar (falling Australian dollar). Australian equities and currency hedged
global equities both fell in the period as investors pared back expectations for US rate cuts in 2025 which could weaken the economic backdrop and
put lofty earnings expectations at risk. The currency moves were so severe that global equities unhedged saw exceptionally strong returns for the
quarter whilst emerging markets were also boosted by the surge in Chinese equities early in the period. Australian listed property fell sharply in
contrast to unhedged global listed property and infrastructure which had a healthy quarter, with infrastructure the pick over property.
On an absolute basis, the best and worst performing investments were as follows:
Top 3:
Aristocrat Leisure
T. Rowe Price Global Equity
GQG Partners Global Equity
Bottom 3:
Mineral Resources Limited
Newmont Corporation
Lynas Rare Earths
Portfolio changes during the quarter:
There were two changes to the portfolio in the period as previously communicated.
Ardea Real Outcome was sold following a period of review where we lost some conviction in the strategy. AB Dynamic Global Fixed Income was
purchased with the proceeds, a strategy where we’ve had long held conviction in both process and team. Both funds have rather unconstrained
approaches, but differ in the process and instruments used with Ardea investing in government bonds solely whilst AB predominantly holds corporate
debt.
The Flinders Emerging Companies fund was closed in the quarter, as the fund’s responsible entity made a decision to wind up the fund citing
insufficient assets raised. Received proceeds were invested into the Investors Mutual Australian Smaller Companies. Investors Mutual (IML) uses a
long-standing process with significant experience at the top of the firm. The manager was established in 1998 and uses a disciplined quality and value
investment style.
Market Outlook
The consensus outlook remains rather positive for now, with recession averted in 2024 and renewed optimism regarding a potential US economic
renaissance. However, investors will need to deal with the implications of tariffs, particularly any inflationary effects, and a gargantuan US government
debt position, a significant part of which needs refinancing in 2025 whilst another US$2 trillion is added to the pile this year!
With less rate cuts on the table in 2025 than previously expected, company earnings will be closely watched as lofty valuations create increasing room
for disappointment. Whilst all-in yields on bonds remain very attractive, the absence of significant rate cuts will mean less impetus for capital gains with
the likelihood of heightened bond volatility remaining.
Unassailable US dollar strength remains problematic, particularly for emerging markets where valuations remain somewhat supportive, whilst the
macro outlook for Europe looks increasingly dire and investors eagerly await action on Chinese stimulus announcements.
Considering this, we remain cautious and well diversified in our approach for now. But also stand ready to take advantage of market mispricings as
they arise.