Page 166 - The Social Animal

148 The Social Animal

the risks we are willing to take. Indeed, whenever we seek to get
something (a sandwich, a job, a divorce, etc.), we are essentially mak-
ing a prediction that getting it will make us happy. Yet, we often
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make predictions about ourselves that are dead wrong. How good
would you feel if you won $500,000 in the lottery and how long
would the good feeling last? How bad would you feel if you got a
D on your term paper and how long would the bad feeling last? I
am willing to bet that winning the lottery would not make you feel
as good as you predict (or for as long) and that getting a D would
not make you feel as bad as you predict for as long as you think. Con-
siderable research demonstrates that we overestimate the emotional
impact of events and durability of our reactions to these events,
whether the events are positive or negative. For example, in one
study, 53 assistant professors were asked to predict how happy they
would be—and for how long—if they received tenure, or how sad
they would be and for how if they did not. These predictions were
compared with the happiness ratings of people who had already gone
through the process—both the winners and losers in the quest for
tenure. The results showed that assistant professors overestimated
how happy or sad they would be after the tenure decision.Those who
had been awarded tenure were less happy than those anticipating the
tenure decision predicted; likewise, those who were denied tenure
were less sad than predicted. Indeed, after five years, the tenure los-
ers and winners were equally happy, despite the life-altering nature
of the tenure decision.
Why do we mispredict? One reason is that we adjust to both
happy and sad events in our lives, but frequently fail to recognize our
powers of adjustment when we mentally construct what our futures
will look and feel like. Another reason is that when we imagine the
future, we tend to focus upon only the event in question (say, getting
or not getting tenure) to the exclusion of all the other things that will
undoubtedly occur at the same time to take the sting out of failure
or to dilute our happiness. So, we imagine that marriage, winning the
lottery, or becoming famous will keep us giddy with happiness for a
long time, or that losing a job or a loved one will devastate us for-
ever, despite the fact that in reality the pleasure or pain these events
induce will fade.
Like imagining the future, recalling the past plays an important
role in our social interactions, and is also subject to bias. Remem-