Page 21 - Australian Defence Magazine July-August 2022

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DEFENCE BUSINESS SUBMARINES 21
The Type 26 is a modular design and the technology is capable of being scaled up to meet blue water requirements.
Furthermore, the US Government wants to increase the number of Virginia submarines constructed each year from two boats to three – just to meet US Navy requirements – so it’s hard to see how additional boats could be made in the near-term for Australia to use until its own build plans reach fruition.
This point has also been made by defence analysts on both sides of the Pacific and while ADM understands that there is consideration of a means of producing submarines for both the US and Australia in Adelaide, this is a huge undertak- ing which comes with significant risk in terms of timeframe. Even if an agreement is forthcoming, developing a local ship- yard capable of producing nuclear boats from a green field site in a little more than 10 years, at a time where a lot of the trained workforce is engaged on the increasingly urgent Col- lins LOTE program, would seem a very risky plan.
On the subject of training, an Australia - US Submarine Of- ficer Pipeline Act bill was introduced into Congress in Wash- ington in June, aimed at allowing RAN personnel to train for nuclear-powered submarine service in the US under the AU- KUS construct. This will no doubt take experienced person- nel away from the Collins fleet for a long time – if not forever – and would seem to rely on the Collins LOTE beginning on schedule. To train an experienced submariner from scratch can take up to ten years today, without the added complexity of nuclear engineering, and would seem to make Australian- crewed nuclear-powered boats problematic, if not impossible, until at least the second half of the next decade anyway.
COLLINS LOTE
The Collins LOTE program is still being defined, but it too comes with significant risks, in terms of timeframe and com- plexity. ASC, the original manufacturer of the submarine, is reportedly keen to do most of the heavy lifting by itself but has never done this scale of work before and media reports in June suggested it has spurned a partnering agreement with Saab Kockums, designers of the Collins-class boat.
Kockums has significant experience in this field already, as well as a deep knowledge of the Collins design. The Swed- ish company has completed two of three Mid-Life Upgrades (MLUs) on the Swedish Navy’s Gotland-class submarines (a contemporary of Collins) and has recently begun the third. At the present time, Kockums is building two new A26 sub- marines as well as working on the third Gotland MLU and is also undertaking a LOTE program on the Swedish Navy’s last remaining Södermanland-class boat – expected to re- turn to service in 2024 and retire in 2029.
The Gotland MLU program involves cutting each sub- marine in half and replacing all obsolescent machinery, sensors and weapons systems, including a Safran optronic mast similar to the one proposed for the Collins upgrades.
“We underestimated the technological leap between the original boats and the post-MLU submarines,” Kommendör (CAPT) Fredrik Lindén, Commanding Officer of the Swed- ish Navy’s 1st Submarine Flotilla, told ADM at the recent celebrations in Stockholm of the Navy’s 500th anniversary. “This is a much better submarine than the one we left in the shipyard in 2016. The hull is the same, but the interior is vastly different, in terms of the engineering and control
RICHARD Marles, the new Defence Minister, must make some tough calls in the near-term if a strategic submarine capability shortfall is to be avoided and the clock is well and truly ticking.
Either way, some significant risk is to be taken on if the strategic situation is indeed as dire as we are led to be- lieve. Marles himself has stated publicly that he doesn’t see Australia being able to build and deliver a nuclear-powered submarine by 2038 – a time at which the current Collins- class boats begin to be retired and assuming of course that the Collins Life Of Type Extension (LOTE) program has gone to plan. Marles also said he is considering an interim submarine capability to bridge the gap.
THE NUCLEAR-POWERED ALTERNATIVE
Marles told media shortly after taking office that he didn’t think the previous government’s plans would deliver a nu- clear-powered submarine until at least the mid-2040s, a time when the last Collins submarine will be leaving the water, and said he is “considering” an interim capability.
SAAB KOCKUMS