Page 140 - Australian Defence Magazine November 2021

140 RAAF 100
NOVEMBER 2021 | WWW.AUSTRALIANDEFENCE.COM.AU
“So how do we protect our own interests? We prevent adversaries from establishing sea control, at least within the range of our air power.”
Then there is the consideration of uncrewed technology, and how that will impact the means by which RAAF wins the air battle in the coming decades.
“Military forces do not exist as ends in themselves,” Da- vies said. “They exist to deliver effects. The question for RAAF is whether those effects can be better delivered by other means in the future. Will it be better to use land- based anti-shipping missiles to counter maritime power rather than put a P-8A at risk?
“These arguments have been had before. The UK went through this in the 1960s, when they
thought missiles were making crewed air-
craft obsolete. That turned out to be far
from true at the time.
“Yet I don’t think it’s something you can
rule out entirely.”
I make the point that there are plenty
of other mission types required of RAAF.
Heavy lift, as covered by Nigel Pittaway elsewhere in this edition, is a perennial requirement, as demonstrated by the evacuation of Kabul.
“That’s fair,” Davies agreed. “Crewed aircraft will also continue to play a role in maritime search and interdiction. But strike is the area where there’s the biggest question over the role of the RAAF as it is structured now.”
According to Davies, airlift and HADR-type missions are likely to become more frequent as climate change takes hold in the Pacific.
“Climate change is the most significant risk we’re fac-
ABOVE: The speed and range of latest-generation missile systems has increased the vulnerability of northern bases.
LEFT: How will autonomous systems impact the delivery of air power?
RIGHT: A RAAF C-130J Hercules arrives in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.
ing,” he said. “A significant disruption to the ability of Asian countries to feed themselves could be profoundly destabilising. The response and mitigation roles are where the military would come in, but what exactly that scenario would mean for RAAF, I don’t know.”
I put it to Davies that the future for RAAF appears to involve a reduced role in strike capabilities, as hypersonic missiles and uncrewed aircraft mature, but an increased role in airlift and other non-combat effects.
“I think that’s a fair statement,” he agreed. “Crewed strike is inherently short-ranged with the kit we have now. But our existing lift capabilities look good for that future. The C-17s and the C-130Js are all capable aircraft.”
Yet there are also issues – not least the failure of the C-27J Spartan aircraft to meet the battlefield airlift requirements for which it was originally bought, as ADM re- ported in July.
“Given the roles that RAAF might be called upon to fill – deploying to airstrips in Papua New Guinea and other Pacific
islands – there probably is a capability gap now,” Davies said. “It’s a shame the C-27J hasn’t delivered that.”
I suggest that if this vision of the future is accurate, RAAF could start looking more like a ‘navy in the sky’, with a greater diplomatic role to play in the Pacific than it has had in its first century.
“I don’t know how much you can trade off that combat capability for more diplomatic or humanitarian work,” Da- vies replied. “I said there’s a role for land-based counter- maritime capabilities, but when you think about the target- ing chain that has to support that, there’s more points of
“CLIMATE CHANGE IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISK WE’RE FACING”
DEFENCE DEFENCE