Page 15 - HW March 2021
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                                            stats watch
                                                       Statswatch
Dec 2020-Jan 2021
WITH RESIDENTIAL BUILDING booming, our latest data sets show non-residential construction struggled last year and may be at something of a crossroads from a health perspective.
• JanuaryriskinCommercialConstructiondeterioratesfurther. • Multi-unitconsentsakeymarkerinDecemberconsents.
NOV-JAN QUARTER RISK DATA
Our exclusive data from CreditWorks Data Solutions (www. creditworks.co.nz) assesses the level of credit risk posed by a particular industry sector.
What does the data for the November 2020-January 2021 quarter tell us?
With Auckland having just emerged from more COVID- 19 restrictions CreditWorks’ GM, Alan Johnston,
Supplies Retailing saw a slight aging in payment profiles and this translated to a 3% increase in risk at the lower end of the scale.
Alan Johnston clarifies: “While not a significant percentage of theoverallexposureinthesector,therewasalsoa50%spikein the10-20%riskband.
“While this is not large in dollar terms, it is not a trend we would want to see continue.”
Similarly, the risk profiles in Residential Construction deteriorated in the 2.5-5% risk band, and the 10-20% risk band.
Says Alan: “While this increase in risk is not of major concern at present, it does signify a trend that tends to raise its head at this time of the year and is something we will watch closely over coming months.”
warns: “We have to be concerned about the impact any further tightening in lockdown levels, resulting in restraints on the workforce would have on retailing and construction going forward.”
Otherwise, as expected, from a credit risk perspective, January wasn’t great in the building sectors.
“We have to be concerned about the impact any further tightening in lockdown levels, resulting in restraints on the workforce would have on retailing and construction going forward”
Having said this, the latest results are more or less
a continuation of the Oct-Dec 2020 figures, where a
few “creaks” appeared, particularly in Commercial Construction.
And indeed, we are seeing further deterioration here, with significant adverse movement in the 5-10% risk band, and the 20-40% risk band.
Says Alan: “This sector of the market has been the one of most concern in recent times, and this current movement doesn’t help to allay our fears.”
Asfarastheothersectorsgo,Hardware,Building&Garden
DECEMBER BUILDING CONSENTS
The December month’s consent data from Stats NZ (www. stats.govt.nz) may have been positive from a value growth perspective, but the 2020 calendar year remains fairly flat overall.
By value, consents for the December 2020 month were as follows:
• Residential:$1.5billion(+26.5%onDec2019).
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