Page 17 - HW FEB 2021

stats watch
Statswatch Nov-Dec 2020
OUR LATEST DATA sets show both better and worse prospects for the building-related industries.
• Commercialconstructionriskincreases.
• NovemberconsentsreboundaftersoftOctober.
OCT-DEC QUARTER RISK DATA
Our exclusive data from CreditWorks Data Solutions (www. creditworks.co.nz) assesses the level of credit risk posed by a particular industry sector. What can we derive from the data for the October-December 2020 quarter?
AlthoughtheDecemberfiguresaregenerallyunchanged onpreviousmonths,asperpreviousyears,Commercial Constructionistheexception.
Forewarned is forearmed: “Suppliers need to start taking note of any payment issues in this sector in particular and act accordingly,”warnsAlan.
NOVEMBER BUILDING CONSENTS
Following on from a soft October, the data for the November 2020 month from Stats NZ (www.stats.govt.nz) once again reflect the ups and downs of New Zealand’s intentions to build.
By value, consents for the November 2020 month were as follows:
• Residential:$1.5billion(+16.7%onNov2019). • Non-residential:$703million(+9.2%).
• Total:$2.3billion(+16.0%).
CreditWorks’ GM, Alan Johnston, comments: “As previously identified, most fallout from the Christmas- New Year spend and reduced activity becomes evident in the Feb/March figures.
“Suppliers need to start taking note of any payment issues in the Commercial Construction sector in particular and act accordingly”
“However, while there was little
change to the risk profiles in Core
Retailing and Residential Construction
– and in fact, a slight improvement in Hardware, Building & Garden Supplies Retailing – we saw further deterioration in CommercialConstruction.”
By volume, 3,881 new dwellings were consented in the month (+20% on Nov 2019), comprising:
• 2,056standalonehouses.
• 1,219townhouses,flats&units.
• 408apartments.
• 198retirementvillageunits.
YTD November 2020 consents however paint a picture of a softer market, as follows:
• Residential:$16.2billion(+2.8%onYTDNov2019).
• Non-residential:$7.0billion(–6.0%).
• Total:$23.1billion(–0.1%).
Indeed,thelatestCommercialConstructionstatsshowa 27%increaseonNovemberinthe10-20%riskband,+43%on October’sdata.
“This is somewhat concerning,” says Alan Johnston, continuing: “If this continues to extend into the higher risk bands–whichisalogicalexpectation–wearegoingto seefurtherstressontheCommercialConstructionsector’s cashflow.”
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