Page 17 - HW December 2020

stats watch
Statswatch Sep-Nov 2020
OUR LATEST DATA sets reveal no firm picture of the road ahead for the building and associated industries.
• Concernsoverlatestriskfigures.
• ReboundinSeptquartervalueofbuildingworkputinplace. • ResidentialpropsupOctconsents.
SEPT-NOV QUARTER RISK DATA
Our exclusive data from CreditWorks Data Solutions (www. creditworks.co.nz) assesses with a high degree of accuracy the level of credit risk posed by a particular industry sector. What can we derive from the data for the September-November 2020 quarter?
As expected, there is not a great deal of risk movement as yet. CreditWorks’ GM, Alan Johnston, comments: “November is traditionally a good month for retail and this is reflected in the Core Retailing figures, where a slight improvement is recorded in the risk 10-40% bands, confirming the originally forecast post-Covid economic effects of the subsidy removals haven’t eventuated as yet.”
TheonlyrealnegativitywasintheHardware/Building/ GardenSuppliessector,whereincreaseddebtisstartingto appearinthemid2.5-10%riskbands.
Along with this, Commercial Construction is also showing greater stress in the higher risk areas.
And, while this sector of the market won’t be as affected overtheXmasperiodastheothersectors,thisadverserisk movement may is “a little concerning” at this time of the year.
SEPTQUARTERVALUEOFBUILDINGWORK
Asexpected,StatsNZ’s(www.stats.govt.nz)datafortheValue of Building Work put in Place for the September 2020 quarter shows a rebound – at least in in total residential building work – after two previous pandemic affected quarters.
Stats NZ also notes that survey respondents for residential building projects in Auckland, who experienced high alert levels forlongerthantherestofthecountry,weremoreaffectedby Covid-19asaresultthanthoseworkingonnon-residential projectsandprojectsoutsideofAuckland.
In fact, some 80% of respondents working on residential building projects in Auckland reported experiencing impacts in cashflow, cost, availability of labour, availability of materials and equipment and/or on-site productivity.
Those surveyed however also expressed a more positive outlook for the December 2020 quarter.
“Auckland residential work was affected most by Covid-19”
The actual value of building work put in place in the September 2020 quarter is as follows:
• Residential:$4.4billion(+6.8%ontheSept2019quarter). • Non-residential:$2.3billion(–4.9%).
• Total:$6.7billion(+2.4%).
By region, the actual value of total building work in the September 2020 quarter, compared with the Sept 2019 quarter, was:
• Auckland:$2.75billion(flat).
• Waikato: $680 million (+13%).
• Wellington:$613million(+15%).
• RestofNorthIsland:$1.0billion(+0.2%).
• Canterbury:$904million(–4.6%).
• Rest of South Island: $711 million (+6.0%).
The non-residential building types with the most work put in place (by value) in the September 2020 quarter were:
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DECEMBER 2020/JANUARY 2021 | NZHJ 15
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