Page 23 - CCFA Journal - 11th Issue

加中金融 ChatGPT

预期后果: 确保政府偿付能力，提高债务上限使美国政府能够继续履行其财政义务，包括支付账单、偿还现有债务和提供
基本服务。这确保了政府的偿付能力，并防止可能对金融市场和经济产生严重影响的违约。

意外后果: 借贷成本上升:持续依靠发债来填补赤字可能会导致投资者对美国债务负担的可持续性感到担忧。因此，贷款
人可能会要求更高的利率来补偿感知到的风险，从而增加政府的借贷成本。随着时间的推移，这可能加剧财政负担，并将
资源从生产性投资中转移出去。

潜在的通胀压力: 如果政府严重依赖借贷来为其支出提供资金，特别是在经济扩张期间，它可能会向经济中注入过多的资
金。这种增加的货币供应可能会导致通胀压力，侵蚀消费者的购买力，降低整体经济的稳定性。

信心减弱和经济不确定性:在不解决根本财政失衡的情况下持续提高债务上限，可能会削弱投资者和公众对政府财政管理
能力的信心。这可能造成经济不确定性，抑制商业投资，阻碍长期经济增长。它还可能引发人们对政府履行未来义务的能
力的担忧。

对未来及后人的负担:不断增加的债务负担会给继任者带来巨大的经济负担。随着政府继续积累债务，它将偿还债务的责
任转嫁给了未来的纳税人，这可能会限制他们的经济机会，并迫使他们承担以前财政决策的成本。

政策选择的限制:不断上升的债务水平会限制政府应对经济衰退或紧急情况的灵活性。由于债务负担沉重，政策制定者在
危机时期刺激经济或实施可自由支配的支出措施的可用资源更少，这可能会加剧此类事件的负面影响。

CCFA： What can the government do differently to keep the debt ceiling under control?

ChatGPT:

Adopt a comprehensive budgetary approach: The government should develop a comprehensive budget that takes into account
both revenue and spending aspects. This involves setting realistic revenue targets and aligning expenditures with available
resources. Implementing multi-year budgeting can provide a longer-term perspective and help identify areas where spending can
be controlled or reduced.

Prioritize spending and reduce waste: The government should prioritize its spending on essential programs and services while
eliminating wasteful or inefficient expenditures. Conducting regular reviews and performance evaluations of government
programs can help identify areas for improvement or consolidation. Implementing cost-saving measures, such as reducing
duplication, streamlining operations, and leveraging technology, can contribute to more efficient resource allocation.

Enhance revenue generation: Exploring avenues for increasing revenue can help reduce the reliance on debt financing. The
government can consider options such as broadening the tax base, closing loopholes, simplifying the tax code, and ensuring that
the tax system is fair and equitable. However, any changes to the tax structure should be carefully assessed to avoid unintended
consequences or negative impacts on economic growth.

Address structural fiscal imbalances: Structural issues contributing to the growth of the debt should be addressed proactively. This
may involve reforms to entitlement programs, such as Social Security and healthcare, to ensure their long-term sustainability.
Implementing measures to control healthcare costs, promote competition, and encourage personal responsibility can help curb
the growth in spending and reduce the strain on government finances.

Promote economic growth and job creation: Policies that foster sustainable economic growth can lead to increased tax revenues
and alleviate the debt burden. The government can promote investment in infrastructure, education, research, and development
to enhance productivity and competitiveness. Encouraging entrepreneurship, supporting small businesses, and fostering an
environment conducive to innovation can create jobs and generate economic opportunities.

Encourage bipartisan cooperation and long-term planning: Achieving sustainable fiscal management often requires bipartisan
cooperation and long-term planning. Political leaders should come together to find common ground and develop fiscal policies
that prioritize the long-term national interest over short-term political considerations. Establishing mechanisms for ongoing
dialogue, such as fiscal commissions or budget committees, can facilitate consensus-building and help guide fiscal decision-making.
It's worth noting that managing the debt ceiling and ensuring fiscal responsibility is a complex and ongoing process. The
government must balance the need to address fiscal imbalances with the goals of economic growth, social welfare, and long-term
stability. Implementing these strategies requires careful analysis, political will, and a commitment to responsible fiscal
management.

CCFA: 那政府能做些什么来控制债务上限呢?

ChatGPT:

采取综合预算方法: 政府应该制定综合预算，考虑收入和支出两个方面。这包括设定切合实际的收入目标，并使支出与可
用资源保持一致。实施多年预算可以提供更长远的视角，并有助于确定可以控制或减少支出的领域。

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE July 2023 Page 23 第23页