Page 4 - The Alp McNamara Downturn Survival Kit

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Bouncing along the bottom
What does the world hold for us now? When will things be back to normal? Will it ever happen and what might that ‘normal’ be? What should a business owner do in the meantime?
4. Effectiveness of suppression.
To date, the Australian and State governments have done a stellar job in suppressing the spread of the virus. But as the calls for return to a ‘normal way of life’ get louder, we must face the reality that this level of suppression control may be challenged.
• Themagicanti-viraldrugmaytakealongtimetodevelop.Orperhaps never. In the meantime, a vast army of Virologists and Immunologists around the world will continue to develop an arsenal of drugs and treatments to build our immunities and better manage sick people to help them get through the worst of it.
• Gettingbacktowork.Wemightjusthavetolivewithcoronavirusinour community. But with strong virus tracking, social distancing, better health practices, hotspot outbreak management, isolating the vulnerable in our community and inventing new ways to work, travel & socialize, we can probably limit any resurgence. That’s good.
• Somethingsmaychangeforever.Thisisaparadigmshiftinourworld. Shopping, elevators, entertainment, public transport, working, dining, socializing, energy usage, flying for pleasure or business, and ... boarding cruise liners ... may never be the same again.
5. How long does it take to recover?
Those who lived through the recession that we “had to have” in the early 90’s would probably recall the protracted duration of the downturn. Once the drama and debris of bankruptcies cleared, for the remaining businesses, there was no rushing back into prosperity. It was often described as ‘bouncing along the bottom’.
• Whatlayaheadweremanyyearsofgettingbacktobasics.Sensible decision making, careful planning, good management. Boring ... but critical to survival.
• Onewayoranother,wefaceaprotractedperiodofrecovery,indebted governments, new taxes and a whole new way to behave and conduct business. This represents plenty of opportunity for the clever and entrepreneurial.
• After29yearswithoutarecession,expectbusinessasveryunusual.