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Chapter 7






                          Overview





                                              Risk                Upside v

                                           aversion              downside                  Risk v

                                                                                       uncertainty

               Variability

               in returns






                                                      Risk and                               Decision
                                                    Uncertainty                                 trees






                    Research                    Modelling techniques

                  techniques




                                               Operating           Scenario planning and
                  Desk research                  gearing
                                                                           simulation



                                                                      Expected values –
                 Field research                Scheduling
                                                                      long-term average




                                                Customer            Sensitivity of decision
                  Focus groups
                                                 reaction              to key estimates






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