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         BREXIT BRIEFING










         Brexit Briefing is a special edition of Industrial Technology EXTRA – our interactive electronic
         supplement to the printed edition of Industrial Technology. Brexit Briefing brings you right up to date
         with all of the changes that arise from the UK withdrawing from the EU, covering the details of the
         trade agreement that will impact on UK manufacturers, and identifying areas where UK companies

         can steal a march on their competitors. It also provides essential business information to help
         companies plan and strategies for the year ahead.

         Contents include:                                                                                              WINTER 2021
         l    Unravelling the rules of origin for manufacturers                Industrial          EXTRA!
         l    Workplace predictions for 2021                                   Technology
         l    Reshaping post-Brexit Britain
         l    Are you in the dark about your energy usage?                BREXIT BRIEF
         l    Report uncovers losses in so-called 'hidden factories'
         l    Post-Brexit compliance for CE-marked products
         l    Making savings to secure the future                                                    ORIGIN OF GOODS
                                                                                                     ORIGIN OF GOODS
         l    Hidden supply chain costs damage profitability                                        IS KEY CHALLENGE
                                                                                                    IS KEY CHALLENGE
         l    Economic predictions for 2021                                                               TO OVERCOME
                                                                                                          TO OVERCOME
         l    And much more

         Optimised for viewing on screen, the publication
         can be downloaded in PDF format, on our Flipbook
         library, and is available via the Industrial                   POST-BREXIT
         Technology app. You can download the Industrial               COMPLIANCE
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                                                                                                  BREXIT BRIEFING       BREXIT BRIEFING
                               BREXIT BRIEFING
                              good being exported back to the EU. All                             Every organisation can make   Time running out for decarbonisation
                              taken into account when determining origin.
          BREXIT BRIEFING  Let’s look at some examples. If you’re a UK   cumulation agreement, the battery packs   operations carried out in the UK or EU are  Insufficient   BREXIT BRIEFING  savings to secure their future  Siemens has published advice for businesses on steps they can take to decarbonise
                          could imported from the EU, incorporated
                                BREXIT BRIEFING
                      company manufacturing fruit smoothies, the
                          into a UK manufactured vehicle and then
                              Processing must be more than the
                      commodity code is 2009. The origin rule is
          Unravelling the rules of    Change of Tariff Heading (CTH) – ie it has to     Evidence of origin is different to other UK   Processing Article (Article ORIG.7).    sourced from outside the UK or EU without   production records, supported by a   BREXIT BRIEFING  GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2021  BREXIT BRIEFING New research from PA Consulting shows   OPTIMISATION PERFORMANCE BY RANK  there is a growing urgency for businesses to
                              processes
                               listed
                                                                                                               Decarbonisation is a clear global target and
                          exported back into the EU.
                                in
                                the
                      smoothie and just adding some sugar or  Evidence of origin
                      change first four digits. If you’re importing a
                                                                                                               act. If they don’t, they risk exposing
                              EXAMPLE 3: FOOD AND BEVERAGE
                                                                           Big data dissatisfaction is
                          trade deals. Because of the volume of goods
                                EXAMPLE 4: AUTOMOTIVE PRODUCTION
                                                                                                               themselves to potential risks from policy-
                      adding a little bit more fruit, then it wouldn’t
                              l  A tin of chopped tomatoes processed
                      qualify for a change of tariff heading. But if
          origin for manufacturers  you’re sourcing all the raw fruits, they would   this as simple as possible. There will be no                 Similarly, in agri-food goods where you have   at a 50% MaxNOM rule, for instance, if you’ve   WORKPLACE PREDICTIONS FOR 2021  driving demand at the Edge  ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS FOR 2021 have a significant opportunity to reduce costs  2.   Life sciences   costs. In addition, decarbonisation is not just  business
                                   affecting the rule of origin.
                                                                                                               driven increased operating costs, increased
                                l  A diesel engine manufactured in the UK
                          involved, efforts have been made to make
                                                                                                  organisations across a number of key industries

                              in the UK

                                                                                                         1.   Automotive
                                       supplier’s declaration if required. If we look
                                                                                                               energy costs or increased compliance
                                       got parts and components that are less than
                          requirement for an EUR1 Preference
                                                                                                               an objective imposed by policies such as the
                       fall under Chapter 8, and they are going to
                                                                                                               Paris Agreement: with the right approach,
                       be sufficiently processed, and the finished
                                       50% and the rest of the value is made up of
                                   a rule of origin that means the goods have to
                          Certificate to be issued for movement of
                                                     GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2021
                                                                                                         3.   Industrial engineering
                                   be wholly produced, if you still have to
                       product would be classified as 2009.
                                       profit, labour, manufacturing costs, then
                          goods between the UK and EU. Instead, the
                                                                                                               also
                                                                                                                creates
                                                                                                                 tangible
                                                                                       After enduring its deepest recession in 74 years in 2020, the global economy is expected
                                                                                                  As organisations look to position themselves
                                            The Workforce Institute at UKG released its annual predictions of the top trends that will
                                                                                                               it
                                   source some of that product from outside the
                                                                                                         4.   Energy and utilities
          The agreement of a trade deal between the UK and EU will have come as an enormous    In this example, you could import fruit from   trade agreement allows the use of two                     UK or EU, provided that its less than 15% by   you’re not really going to need a supplier’s   2020’s legacy will be one of immense   imperative to drive true engagement – one   complex compliance landscape: Labour   BUSINESSES   COVID CASES IN EMERGING MARKEKTS (TO NOV 2020) Frost & Sullivan’s recent analysis, Growth   to rebound in 2021, acc
                                                                                                      organisation and govern-
                                                                                                       processes,
                          different types of evidence – invoice

                                   weight of the final product, that will not affect
          relief to manufacturers, but the new rules of origin represent somethng of a maze. Here,
                                                                                                  research from PA Consulting, the global
                                       declaration. It’s only where you’re exceeding
                                                                                                               financial savings.
                                            impact the global workforce in 2021, highlighting five key opportunities in the workplace
                                                     Growth is forecast for the UK,
                                                                           Demand for low-latency real-time insights is seeing increased demand for Edge
                                                                                        1
                                                                                                      methodologies. Falling short
                                                                                                  innovation and transformation consultancy,
                                       the 50% that you would need a supplier’s
                                   the rule of origin.
          ANDREW THURSTON, customs duty consultant at MHA Macintyre Hudson, navigates us

                                                                 FIND NEW WAYS
                                                                                        A successful, widespread Covid
                          declaration or importer’s knowledge.
                       the EU under bilateral cumulation, and they
                                                                                        vaccination program is expected
                                                                                                               These include increased brand reputation,
                                            disruption, but following disruption always

                                       declaration to evidence that.
                                                                                                         6.   IT and telecommunications
                       could be included in the UK origin because
                                                                                                      in even one area can limit an
                                                                                           In emerging markets, where inflation is a
                                                                                                  shows that leaders across sectors have an
                                                                                                      organisation’s
                          With the invoice declaration, a statement of

                                                that not only defines and differentiates an
                                                                 TO INNOVATE IN
                                                                                               GDP growth is projected to be near 3.0% in
                                                                                                  untapped opportunity to significantly reduce
          through the detail of these complex rules that manufacturers will need to understand
                                            comes the opportunity to refocus and
                                                                                                         7.   Defence and aerospace
                                                                           analytics – a market that Frost & Sullivan says could be worth some $1.18bn by 2025
                                                                                           more immediate concern, monetary easing
                                                    laws, workplace rules, migration policies,
                       there is a change of tariff heading. The
                                   There are some exceptions to manufactured

                                                                                        to enable a transition to post-
                                                organisation’s employee experience, but
                                            reinvent. So said Dr. Chris Mullen, executive
                                                                                                               customer preference over competitors and
                                                                                               2021, with greater downside risks.
                                                     but below the global average
                                                                                           is ending but policy rate increases will be
                                                    regulations will keep evolving.
                          declaration, the UK exporter needs to state
                                   goods. Textile and clothing products
                       classed as a UK originating product. The
                                                    minimum wage, and Covid-19-related

                                                                                                               have paved the way; Now it’s time for other

                       only potential issue would be the sugar
                                                                                                Europe’s 2021 annual growth

                                  u  Origin rule: Production in which all
                                   classified under HS50-63 are subject to
                                                                                                      basis
                                       l  A mixture of drive fruit and nuts produced
                                                uncertainty. Trust will also extend to
                                                                                       rapid deployment of effective vaccines and
                          their EORI number, while EU exporters
                                                                                                         9.   Transport

                               materials of Chapter 7 used are wholly
                                                                                                rates are expected fall short of
                                                                                                               businesses to follow suit.
                                       in the UK
                                                                                                  With GDP forecast to contract across the
                                                                 COVID CRISIS
                                                                                       unleash a new wave of spending on travel  5
                                                customers and communities.
                                                                          Market, Forecast to 2025, finds that
                                                                                       reopening of economies should gradually
                                            “While the Covid-19 pandemic was

                       content (under Chapter 17): any non-
                           require registration for REX (Registered
                                            unimaginable just a year ago, our 2020

                                                                                                  globe and as organisations grapple with the
          The trade agreement between the UK and   smoothie can then be exported to the EU   origin is included by the exporter. On the       u  HS code: 2002.90          u  HS code: 8408   specific tolerance thresholds, when are   EXAMPLE 5:  FOOD AND BEVERAGE   director of The Workforce Institute at UKG.   also unlocks an ability to embrace  regulations to be put forth to do what is right   THE FACE OF THE    Opportunities in the Global Edge Analytics   pandemic economic growth of 4.5%: “The   rare in 2021.  The global financial sector
                                                                                                      PA’s research identified that


                                                    Organisations do not need to wait for
                                                                                                         10. Government and public sector
                               obtained
                                    u  Product: Diesel engine
                       originating sugar content cannot exceed
                                                                                       and services, driving robust growth in the
          EU has introduced new rules for exporters of
                                                                                            should avoid major crises next
                                                                                                  challenges of the Covid-19 crisis, the

                                   detailed in Notes 7 and 8 of Annex ORIG-1.
                                            predictions – anchored by themes of
                                                                                                 related
                                                                                                      the weakest areas across
                                                                          Dissatisfaction with Big Data Analytics (BDA)
                              l  Rule requires tomatoes to be produced in
                                                                                                and
                           Exporter status). There is currently no
                                                                                                               Technical advancements such as digital
                                                                                            year: In advanced economies,
                                                                          is increasing the uptake of edge analytics
                                            wellness, advocacy, and empowerment  –
                                                Organisations will explore new avenues to
                                                                                                 containment

                                                    for their workforces. By exceeding the
                                                      by
          goods, with a requirement to retain   40%. If you’re importing large quantities of   monetary limit.   the UK  l  However, with cumulation, a UK producer   Tolerances are an important tool for rules of        now seem serendipitous.    support the unique needs of their entire   baselines  Morgan Stanley projects strong global GDP growth of 6.4% for 2021 – led first by   The international outlook for R&D is   solutions across industry verticals. Frost &   later part of 2021,” said Sara Johnson,   expansionary  monetary  policies
                                                                                                    removing
                                                     emerging markets, followed by reopening economies in the U.S. and Europe – in a
                                                     created
                                                                                                     costs
                                                                                                   of
                       sugar from outside the EU, if 40% by weight
                                    u  Origin rule: MaxNOM 50%
                                                                            analysis,

                                                                            recent
                                l  Maximum 50% non-originating content
                                                                                                      comprehensive vision for managing costs
          satisfactory evidence of origin. This is   of the smoothing contains non-originating   The second option is importers knowledge.   can import EU tomatoes and process them   might not look as though you will meet the        “Organisations and their people are now   and best position themselves as a   organisations can free themselves from   promising despite strong headwinds,   Opportunities in the Global Edge Analytics  Growth   IHS Markit. “After a 4.0% decline in 2020, the   expected to keep term debt costs sharply   business
                                   origin, because where in some instances it
                                                workforce, mitigate the effects of burnout,
                                                      governments,
                                                                                       executive director for global economics at

                                                                                                               have made decarbonisation more feasible.
                                                                          Sullivan’s
                                                                                               recovery early in 2021. Lagged increases in
                           The this allows an importer to claim a
          something that’s additional that companies
                                (parts)
                                                                  according to research by Ayming Group.
                                                     macro outlook that diverges from the consensus. But the UK is some way behind
          who manufacture goods or send goods
                                                                                                                   solutions to go beyond just monitoring a
                       sugar, then it would not qualify.
                                                destination for talent. Those that do will give
                                                                                                               decarbonisation strategies, Siemens has
                                                                                                                       achieve carbon ‘negativity’ on the supply
                                                                                                      for benchmarking cost reduction). This is
                                                                                       global economy is expected to expand 4.5%
                                                                                               forecast to restrain growth as policy support
                               into chopped tomatoes
                                                                                                          when it is established as an every-day activity
                                   rules of origin, being able to factor in
                                                    chasing a constantly moving target; instead,
                                                                                                  a survey of 180 industry leaders across ten
                                                                                           lower. More fiscally constrained emerging
                                                    they can focus squarely on creating finely
                           preferential duty rate based on their own
                                                                                                                       side, which is used to offset carbon from
                                                                                                      concerning because both areas were also
                                                                                                               published a new whitepaper suggesting a
                                            doing things they once thought impossible,
                                                                                                          and not as a loose set of actions to take in
                                l  However, with cumulation, EU content can
          across the border will need to have in place,
                                                                  Ayming’s second annual International
                                                                                           markets will rely heavily on forbearance
                                                                                                  sectors, demonstrates that every sector has
                                                                          Market, examines the key competitors in the
                                                                                       next year, with global output expected to
                                                                                                                   facility’s equipment. With the right control
                                be counted as originating
                               back to the EU as a UK originating product
                                                earn it. They will transform process and
                                            presenting a small silver lining to a year we’d
                                                                  R&D departments are being empowered
                                                    engaged workforces that have an advantage
                               l  If less than 50% of the ex-works price is of

                                                                          forecast analysis by region and industry
                           imported products. This might apply if you’re
                                                                                               vaccine-driven pick-up in eurozone growth
                                                                                           economic rebound takes hold. However,
          which they might not have the facility to do   EXAMPLE 2: AUTOMOTIVE PRODUCTION   knowledge about the originating status of   l  The finished product can be re-exported   tolerances might be enough to sway the       u  HS code: 0813.50   showing incredible resiliency and creativity,   trust to employees instead of making them   tuned operations powered by highly   MORGAN STANLEY REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS  Innovation Barometer (IIB) reveals that   edge analytics software market, revenue   reach a new peak.”  A  measures to contai
                                   product to classify as being of UK origin.

                                                policy to imagine what’s possible when you
                                            otherwise wish to forget. As we look ahead
                                                                          vertical, and much more.
                                                                                                                   significant energy savings, while modern
                                                    in recruiting top talent.
                                                                                                                       tap into new revenue streams from the
                                                                                           rising public and private debt burdens could
                                                                                                          impact – for example, cutting head count in
                                                                                               rates from mid-year. Eurozone real GDP is
                                                     Rising Covid-19 case numbers in the US and
                                                                                                      success. Their relevance and current
                       l  Hybrid motor vehicle manufactured
                                                                                                               neutrality. These are grouped into three
                                                                                                  competitive advantage. The automotive
          at the moment.   in the UK   shipping under DDP terms: you’re the      non-UK or EU materials then it will qualify   Let’s consider the production in the UK of       u  Origin rule: Production in which i) all the   at 2021, workplaces everywhere will be   assume good intentions. They will achieve      Europe make it difficult right now to envision                                                2020E                  2021                                2022E   by the creation of innovation ecosystems,  the      2  economic recove
                                                                                          timeline
                                as UK origin
                                                                                        divergent
                           importer, you’re claiming the preference, you
                                                                    and
                                                                                                               side, actions on the energy demand side and
                                                                                                                   and how it reacts to load changes.
          The agreement allows for both UK and EU      would have knowledge of how that product   Let’s consider a tin of chopped tomatoes,   0813.50. The rule requires the nuts and fruit   obtained, and ii) the total weight of non-  presented with the opportunity to take the   elevated experience as a stakeholder in the   As part of this, organisations should consider                                                 MS            MS          Consensus        MS       Consensus       3.7   deployment of technology.   US CORE PCE INFLATION
                                                                   methods,

                                                                                               return to pre-pandemic levels not expected
                                                                  funding
                                                more because employees will enjoy an
                                                                                                  terms of cost optimisation.
                                   mixed fruit and nuts, with an HS code of
                                                     a return to normal. Yet, even as the pandemic
                                                                                                          an organisation is at all six dimensions, the
                                        materials of Capter 8 used are wholly
                                                                                                                       l  Purchase zero-carbon electricity. This
                                                                  new
                                                                                        to economic growth varying
                                                     drags on, the global economy has proven
                                                                          Demand for machine intelligence (MI) and
                               l  The finished product can be exported to
          goods to be counted as inputs from the other
                                        originating materials of headings 17.01
                           was built up for the rule of origin, so you
                                                    compliance as a piece of their overall
                                                                                                                   significantly reduces direct emissions,

                                                                                                                       suppliers or signing power purchasing
          party when assessing the origin of goods.
                                            lessons learned from the last year to
                                                business.

                                                                          artificial intelligence (AI) applications at the

                               where the raw tomatoes are processed in the

                                the EU as a UK originating product
                                                                                            Finished goods prices are
                                                         DEVELOPED MARKETS      -5.4            5.1                4.2                3.9
                                                     remarkably resilient. Following a steep

                                   rule you can have 15% of the weight made
          Full bilateral cumulation will be applied, as          could use importers knowledge rather than   UK. In this instance we have to look at the 6-  to be grown in the UK, but with the tolerance   and 17.02 does not exceed 20% of the   reimagine a better world of work for the       Compassionate and inclusive   engagement strategy, identifying work   GLOBAL                               -3.5            6.4                5.4                4.4       2.7       3.0   R&D teams remain resolute in the face of   edge is driving the mar
                                       weight of the product
                                                     decline in early 2020, the world economy
                                                                  several key obstacles. Not only has
                               digit tariff code, 2002.90, with the origin rule
                                            future.”
                                                                          analytics. By 2025, the global edge analytics
                                                     rode a rebound that began in May and
                                                    processes that will empower employees with
                                   up of non-originating fruit. So you can bring
                                                                                       recoveries to pre-pandemic levels are

                                                                                            Increases in commodity prices in
                                                                                                          Successful organisations are simple,
                                                                                                accelerate to its strongest
                                                                                                               steps will typically be overarching and
          was expected as part of the trade deal. So        As part of the trade deal there is   being production in which all of the materials   in nuts and fruit from outside the UK or EU,   l  The tolerance rule permits the use of non-  1  The Great Reset: Work will be   3  management that puts employ-  control of their own destiny while still meeting   United States                          -3.5             5.9                 3.8                4.1       2.8       1.5   Covid-19 caused expectations for budget   software market is est
                                                                                                                       generator leveraging the guarantees of origin
                           the statement of origin.
                                                                                                                   charging solutions.
          where goods are purchased, for instance,

                                       l  Rule requires the nuts and fruit to be
                               Let’s now consider the manufacture of a
                                                                                                growth rate in recent years but
                                                                  increases to decline 12%, but complexity
                                                                                       forecast to take until 2023 or 2024 in Japan
                                                     remains on track to surpass prepandemic
                                                         Euro Area                               -7.2             5.0                 5.2                3.9
                                                                                                          creating a flat organisational structure. A
                                                     GDP levels by the end of this year – setting
          from Germany, to be incorporated into a UK
                                                                          nearly five-fold growth, garnering a revenue
                                                 ees’ lives ahead of work will
                                                                                                                   to any energy savings that are a result of
                               used are wholly obtained.
                                       grown in the UK
                                   and provided it makes up less than 15% of
                               diesel engine with the HS code of 8408.
                                                                                                                       l  Deploying energy storage on its own is
                                                                                       and several major European economies.
                                                    the needs of the business.
                                             (re)shaped in real time as
                               Under cumulation, any EU content can be
                                                                  is making it increasingly difficult to
                                                                                                          simple business design makes it easier to
                                                                                                               specialist internally, to ensure a realistic
          finished product, provided there is sufficient
                                                                                                                       not necessarily providing carbon savings but
                                                                          of $1.18 billion from $254.8 million in 2020.

                                                                                           downstream for the next six to nine months,
                           responsibility on both parties to provide
                                                                                                                   adjustments in parts of a production
                                                         UK                                           -11.4           5.3                 5.5                5.5
                                                                    international
                                                                   successfully,
                                             organisations decide which
                                                and emotional safety, mental wellness,  5

                                   the weight the finished product would still
                               counted as originating, but in addition parts
                                       originating ingredients
                                                become a leadership mainstay. Physical
                                                                                                                     lowering
                                                     the stage for strong growth in 2021.
          processing carried out, these can be
                                                                                                                    for
                                                                                                                    example
                                                     especially practical AI and


                                                                              Edge analytics software analyses data on the
                                                                                           In the second half of 2021, consumption
                               from all over the world can be incorporated
                               don’t have to be sourced in the UK, they can
                                                                                               vaccines and pent-up demand will help the

                                                                  collaboration is proving challenging.
                                                                              device, reduces latency, eliminates the need
                                                                                                               implemented.
                                            on the verge of the Great Reset. The
                           for origin purposes.
                                                                                           patterns are expected to shift back toward
                                                burnout, depression, isolation, social unrest,
                                                                                       Western Europe is expected see a rise in
                                                     In its 2021 outlook, the economics team at
                                                                                  Automation and FogHorn Systems. Other
                                                                                                                       optimisation asset (for example optimising
          included as inputs for determining the origin       u  HS codes: 8702 to 8704   mutual assistance to monitor the evidence   Bilateral cumulation means the tomatoes   meet the rule of origin.    l  Total weight of the non-originating fruit or   pandemic-era practices stay and go. We’re  and political turmoil have weighed heavily on   Expectations of technology,   Japan                                     -5.2             2.4                 2.5                2.4       3.0       4.5       5.4   innovate competition for talent is
                                                                                               Chinese economy expand 7.5% in 2021, its
                               be brought in from the EU, processed
                                                                                                          various functions in an organisation and to
                                                         EMERGING MARKETS        -2.0            7.4                6.3                4.7
                                                                                                                   compromising overall process quality.
                                                                                  market vendors include Swim.ai and
                                                                                                          identify potential cost savings.
                               into the engine, and as long as that is less  Evidence of origin
                                                                                  Guavus.
                                                     Morgan Stanley Research says the V-shaped

                                                                            advantage,
                                                                                                               l  Align energy KPIs with business KPIs to
                                       nuts cannot exceed 15% of the net weight
                                                                              for large amounts of data transfers, maintains
                                                                                               highest rate since 2013. After the cyclical
                           u  Origin rule: MaxNOM 45% (EXW) and
                                                                          asset, which they can leverage to create a
                                                     automation, will be higher than
                                                                                                                       power flow of on-site generation).
          of the goods for UK purposes. They can then   battery packs of heading 85.07 of a kind   Under the UK/EU trade agreement, bilateral   sufficiently to change the tariff heading, and   Evidence of origin is different for wholly   of the finished product  circumstances of 2020 brought out the   everyone. While businesses have done more   ever. The pandemic has ushered in new   China                                      2.3              9.0                 8.0                5.4       5.6     However, advances in technology are   ef
                                                                                       joblessness as public funding of furlough
          be re-exported back into Europe as UK-
                           Bilaterial cumulation
                               than 50% of the ex-works price, the engine
                                                     recovery that the team forecast in its 2020
                               then exported to the EU as a finished product
                                                than ever before to protect workers, their
                                                                                               to the deceleration path that began in 2012,

                                                                                                                 measuring
                                                    technologies that have reshaped our
                                                                                                               considered
                                            creativity and resiliency of workplaces
                                                                                                                       energy tariffs, while on-site generation on its
                                                                                                                when

                               will qualify as a product of UK origin.
                                                                                           goods industries could see conditions soften
                       used as the primary source of electrical
                                                     midyear outlook is now entering a new self-
          originating goods.   power for propulsion of the vehicle must   cumulation has been accepted. This covers,   of UK origin.  Tolerances   produced goods and sufficiently transformed     But care must be taken because this is   worldwide, as many businesses did things   families, and the broader community, cracks   more pressure on organisations to deliver a   India                                       -5.7             9.8                 8.3                6.0       2.5       2.3  empowering R&D professionals, who see   customer
                                                         Brazil                                      -4.0             4.3                 3.5                2.7
                                                    personal and social lives. This will put even
                                                                          disruption,” said Anisha Vinny, program
                                                                                           Supply chain disrup-tions should also slowly
                                                                  it as the most important driver of
                                                                                  SiSense and NVIDIA are still piloting edge
                                                     sustaining phase and is on track to deliver
                                            they once thought impossible. With months
                                   goods. For wholly produced goods, there
                                                                                                               Challenge
                                                                                                            seem
                                                     6.4% GDP growth in the coming year.

          Determining origin   l  Rule requires a maximum of 45% (by   for example, UK origin parts being exported   One of things to consider in the rules of   needs to be a statement of where the goods   something that HMRC will look at and will try   of data to analyse the impact of actions, over     run more deeply each month.    matches workplace technology experience that   Russia                                     -4.0             3.4                 3.0                3.2  innovation, selected by 39% of survey   manager for infor
                           to the EU for processing, and EU finished
                                                                                                            may
                                                                                                           methods
                        be originating
                                                                                                                  chain
                                                                                                                 supply
                                                                                                                the
                                                                                        the impact of climate change,
                                                                          technologies at Frost & Sullivan.

                                                                                                                       optimising with other energy elements, from
                                                                                                                   energy.
          To determine origin, you first need to know   value) of non-originating materials to be   product incorporating that UK origin being   origin is tolerances, which can be used to   vessel used has to be registered in the   which are not. If you’ve not got a supplier’s   organisations decisions make  conscious about  policies,  and  Organisations that will excel in 2021 will be     technology experience.   “This projection stands in stark contrast to   synchronised global growth, an emerging-  The stage could be set for another su
                                   have been grown or reared. For fish, the
                                                     employees’
                                            the next year we’ll watch in real time as
                                                     their

                           shipped back to the UK. In that case, the
                                                                                  however, they have not been included in the
          the first six digits of the tariff heading of the
                                                      consumer
                                       to work out which parts are of UK origin and
                                            deliberate
                       used and battery packs must be originating
                                                                                                          a march on the competition.
                           finished product would be specified as being
                                                                                                               l  Support customers to decarbonise,
                                                                  technical
                                                                                                                       holistic solution provided by microgrids. This
                                                                                       continue next year: “We expect to see
                                                             beginning in the second quarter of 2021.
          particular product. If you don’t know that,
                                                led by compassionate and inclusive
                                                                              product portfolio to include edge analytics
                                                     the consensus, which forecasts 5.4% global
                                                                                                                   involves power generation with low-carbon
                               maintain rule of origin even when some parts
                                                                   nature
                                                                   of
                                                                                               weaken in 2021: A lagged
                                                                    R&D
                                   beneficiary country and has to sail under its
                                   flag or an EU member state.
                                                         market rebound and the return of inflation.
                                                                                                                   technologies like solar PV, wind power,
                                                                                  Microsoft, and Amazon Web Services (AWS)
                                                                  businesses are looking for outside
                                                                                               response to the Fed’s sharp pivot
                                                     growth and worries that the pandemic will
                                                                                                                       can also be combined with energy tariffs
                                                                                       continued scrutiny of the ESG contributions
                               have to be sourced from outside of the UK or
          you need to refer to the customs tariff.
                                                                                            start 2021 slowly, accelerate in
                                       declaration and you need to have one, then
                                                             Initially, emerging markets will likely drive

                                                                                                               leading to overall less carbon related to
                                                                                                            operational
                                                                                            the second half: If another modest
          Although in most cases it is only four digits
                                                                                                            Global
                                                                                                           Wilcox,
                       be imported for the use in the UK
                                                                          surveyed by Frost & Sullivan claimed that
                               manufactured goods under the sufficiently
                                                             from winter lockdowns, developed markets
                                                    years’ worth of digital transformation in mere
                                                wellness, and belonging. An intentional
                                                approach
                       calculation if used in or assembled onto
                                                                                  development kits to support the developer
                           because the original export into the EU
                                                         strategists urge investors to trust the
                                                                              rather than moving data to a central hub for

                                                                  resources up from 35 to 48%. Collab-
                                       There is a transitional period at the moment
                                                                          investigating and utilising data is a top
                                                     have a bigger impact on private-sector risk
                                                                              analysis.
                                                 to
                                                                                                                   l  Shift to low-carbon heat. This can result
                                                     appetite and, hence, global growth,” says
                                                                         economy will expand 9% in 2021, before
                           would have a statement of origin as well,
                                                 understanding
                                                                                                                       and carbon savings.
                                                         recovery and overweight equities and credit
                               transformed rules, up to 10% by value can be
                                            They will move beyond reacting and begin to
                                                                                           highly successful Covid-19 inoculation
                                                                          business priority. Cost reduction is cited as
                                                                  oration may be down, but a new
                                                                                       of sustainability-linked issuance,” continued
          that are needed, there are circumstances   l  Cumulation allows EU originating goods to   of EU origin, and there would be no duty   EU. For example, where we are looking at     With sufficient transformation, evidence   it’s something you need to put in place.   processes, and practices.    management that emphasises empathy,  unique  While many organisations have undergone   Against this macro outlook, Morgan Stanley   global GDP growth; then, as they emerge   support, with use of external private   Emerging markets lead the r
                                                                                               an increase in investor risk tolerance and a
                                                                               Edge
                                                                                ecosystem

                                                             could add to that momentum. “By March or
                                                     Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley’s chief
                                                                                                          PA Consulting says: “A new ‘always-on’
                                                    months, emerging technologies face a day

          where you’ll need to go to the 6-digit heading   There are some exceptions where the rules   EXAMPLE 1: FOOD AND BEVERAGE   stating that they are UK origin parts.   you don’t necessarily need to have the   refocus and reinvent. Which pandemic-era   result in foundational solutions built on   of reckoning: the focus on AI’s overhyped   versus government bonds and cash.   April, we expect all geographies and all   outsourcing hybrid model is emerging   faced numerous cyclical challenges in recent   Nonetheless, every recession lea
                                                                      Emerging markets, excluding China, have
                                                                                                                   in a drastic decrease in emissions.
                                                                                  community in creating edge analytics
                                                                                               widening trade deficit is expected to drive
                                                challenges specific to their own business will
                                                                              collaborate to push the technology forward
                                       whereby, if you’re using existing suppliers,
                       the finished vehicle
                                                                                       Johnson. “Meanwhile, policy support for
                                                                                                               Actions on the energy demand side: A key
                                                                                  solutions.
                                   would include the bill of materials or
                                                     economist. “We maintain that consumers
                                                                          a strategic priority by 78% of business
                                                                  whereby big companies create an
                                                                           toward
                                                                         moderating
                                                                           5.4%
          to determine the rule of origin.
                                       supplier’s declaration from day one, but it is
                                                                          leaders, while 72% are willing to invest in

                                                                                           year real GDP growth is expected to exceed
                                                                              across industry verticals and locations.
                                                                                                               will be translated into carbon savings and
                                                diversity, equity, and fairness. Returning to

                                                                                       and declining costs for wind, solar and
                                                                                                                   challenges that the energy industry is facing
                                                    promises that may never come will be
                                                                                                                       strategy will depend on a clear vision and
                                                     have driven the recovery, and investment
                                            policies will stay and go? Which will be
                  l  Fruit smoothie produced in the
                                                                                                          organisations emerge stronger and ready for
                                                             sectors of the global economy to be joining
                                                     growth – a reflection of the private corporate  Global growth in sync
              non-originating materials, or where some
                                                                          technologies that could reduce spending.”
          There are two conditions that determine   of origin set a maximum limit on the value of   UK using fresh fruit from around      In our second example, let’s look at the     This allows the reduction in any customs   something HMRC will be looking at going   refined? Which “old ways” of work will come   the status quo will be insufficient.    replaced by a demand for practical AI and   World economies rarely move in lockstep. In   the recovery,” says Ahya.   innovation ecosystem with smaller ones.   years. Now, with more favorabl



                                       forward.

                                            back? The answers may take years to
                                                    automation use cases that have an
                                                                                           probability of growth reaching above 5.0% in
                                                                                  and Latin America (NALA) region, led by the
                                                                      dynamics in many developing nations,
                                                                         the return of inflation. “When it comes to
                                                     sector's risk tolerance and a key feature of
                                                                          Edge analytics solutions utilise devices such
                                                                                       energy transition and restrain hydrocarbon
          origin, and it depends on the type of goods:   tariff headings allow a qualifying process to   the world, seasonally sourced   manufacture of an electric or hybrid motor   duties crossing borders where there are EU      solidify, which illustrates the true future of   immediate impact on their people and      The funding landscape has also   emerging markets could set the pace for   inflation, we see a very different dynamic   There is a consensus that a single vendor   demand and prices.”   the second half of 2021.    against s
          wholly produced or sufficiently transformed.   be carried out, even though some or all of       u  HS code: 2009   vehicle, covered by HS codes 8702 to 8704.   and UK products.    I expect that there will be quite a lot of activity   work will be steeped in the ability to embrace   Lastly, an influx of new Gen X CEOs and   operations.    any self-sustaining recovery – is bouncing   fact, a synchronous global recovery, where   The US economy, for its part, has stayed   diversified. Incentives remain crucial, with   global growth.
                                                         growth in both developed and emerging
                       Here we must not exceed specified
                                                                                  analytics solutions, accounting for 59.3% of
                                                             resilient through the pandemic. Consumer
                                                                                               continued high current account surpluses
                                                                              collaboration is becoming the key to market
                                                                                                          identifies ways to increase margins, gain new
                                                                                                                   high temperature heat pumps depending on

              the parts have not changed tariff heading.
                                                                                                                       clear commitments and a dedicated budget
          Wholly produced goods are those which are     Certain processes are said to be minimal and       u  Origin rule: CTH, provided that the total   maximum amounts of non-originating   Full bilateral cumulation allows an exporter   in terms of mutual assistance to get things   For this Great Reset, the triumvirate of the   and thought – to executive suites. More  Boomer   Successful AI deployments will unburden   markets accelerate in the same year, has   spending has nearly returned to pre-Covid   R&D tax credits most popular at 4%
                                                CXOs will bring diversity – in gender, race,

                                                                          as routers, sensors, integrated access
                                                                                                               forms of increasing energy efficiency in a
                                            uncertainty.
                                                                      already well into their recoveries, while in the
                       material. So where you’ve got an ex-works
                   weight of non-originating materials of
          grown or dug up from the ground in a
                                                     back as well.”

                           both to use originating materials and
                                                                                        Monetary policies should remain

                                                     Three key factors will characterise the next
                                                  Baby
                                                                                                          presents an opportunity to rejuvenate an
                                                                                  East, and Africa (EMEA) region is the
                                                                  applications remain overcomplicated – a
                                                                      large, arguably more domestic demand-
                                                             levels, while average personal incomes of
                                                                                               yen should benefit from strengthening
                                                         happened only a dozen times over the past
                                                                                                                   (for example moving from natural to “green”
                   headings 17.01 and 17.02 used does not
          member state of the EU. The term thus
                                                                                                                       clear way up to the C-level for all aspects
                                                                                           $900 billion would be expected to raise full
                                                 than
                                                 their
                                                diverse
                                       up and running and to get everything
                                                                                                               from a basic upgrade to LED lighting to a
                                                                          embraced this concept.
                                                                                  second-largest revenue contributor in the
                                                                                        the United States, Eurozone, the
                                                    managers and empower employees. They
                                                                                                          organisation – increasing collaboration and
                                                                                                                   gas).
                                                         40 years – the last in 2017.
                                                                                                               more sophisticated upgrade to electric
                                                                  particular problem for SMEs with limited

                                                                                                                       relating to decarbonisation, beyond just
                                       evidenced properly. So you could find that
                           products, and to carry out processing or
                   exceed 40% of the weight of the product
          applies mainly to products which occur
                       price of, say, £100, provided less that £45 of
                                                                                           year US GDP growth to more than 5.0% next
                                                             levels in September, even after the first round
                                                     stage of the V-shaped recovery, says Ahya:
                                                                                               renminbi is forecast be supported by
                                                                          unemployment spike to levels not seen in
                           means that even if a EU intermediate product
              production. These include:
                                                heralds of cultural change.
                                                                  R&D themselves, so these challenges
                                                     MS FORECASTS GLOBAL SYNCHRONOUS RECOVERY
                       originating material, then it would qualify.
                                                                                           stimulus, and if lockdowns are implemented
                                            that protect their people and their bottom line
           naturally and to goods made entirely from   therefore cannot be used as sufficient   l  Rule requires all non-originating raw   that ex-works price is made up of non-  production on non-originating materials. It   your company is visited by HMRC in the   CEO, CFO, and CHRO developing policies   predecessors, they will be embraced as   will help gauge sentiment and accelerate   US households surpassed prepandemic   resources. SMEs often cannot finance   oriented economies, like India and Brazil, a   Put simply, the pandemic has
                                                                      number of indicators have recently exceeded

                                                                                  industry verticals, the manufacturing sector
                                                                                                                       significant impact in the overall success of
                                                                                                               facility, or improvements in the efficiency of
                                                                                                          ways. It changes the way organisations think
                                                    decision-making for everyone. Organisations
                  materials to change tariff heading
                                                                                           to contain the latest surge of infections, real
           those products.    the products remain in good condition   l  However, any non-originating sugar   With this particular rule of origin, it adds in   is not itself deemed as originating from the   you’re doing things correctly.    a competitive edge.    4  Outside forces – including the  and  (and their employees) will pay closer atten-  suggest a sustainable US recovery, with   have caused a jump in private funding,   positive year-on-year growth.”   generations, and policymakers are expected   leads the way, followed by energy
                                                                      pre-COVID-19 levels and are registering
                                                                                               mainland China’s accelerating economy and
                                                             of fiscal support expired. These factors
                                                                                                                   markets, ie generate excess electricity that
                                       medium term, to check origin and to check
              l   Preserving operations to make sure that
                                                                                       remain near or below zero well beyond 2021.
                           EU, UK firms can count the EU value-added
                                                                          to do whatever it takes to create jobs and
                                            while moving the business forward will gain

                                                                  with equity/debt funding up 6%, and

                                                pandemic,

                                                  economy,
           Products outside of these food and   l   Breaking up and assembly of packages   l  If the above is met, then the finished   that the battery packs have to be of   in that product when using the input in a final   7  There are two types of supplier’s declaration.   Trust will become a foundational   regulatory change – will push   demanding significant value from systems      crowdfunding up 17%.     Morgan Stanley economists expect this   return employment to pre-Covid levels as     To capitalise on the immense growth   Discret
                                                                                  logistics.”
                                                             projected GDP growth of 5.9% in 2021.
               during transport and storage
                   content must not exceed 40% of the weight

                                                    tion to current and prospective technology,
           agricultural sectors are classified under
                                                                          quickly as possible  – even as economic
           sufficient production). There has to be some
                                                    while ensuring they measurably enhance
                                       One is a single declaration that covers one

                                                                                               Logistics: Growing investment in auto-
                                                    performance, productivity, and the overall
                                                             reimposing Covid restrictions in October as
                                             isations. While some organi-
                                                uncertainty created by the pandemic,
           sufficient transformation of the raw materials   l   Washing, cleaning, removal of dust,   product is a UK originating product  originating nature. But with the bilateral    INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY EXTRA – WINTER 2021  consignment – eg an annual consignment   2  imperative for successful organ-  businesses to the brink. In addition to   employee experience. Technologies that do   In Europe, where many countries began   Mark Smith, partner of innovation   momentum to continue into next year. At the   output improves. Those stimulu
                                                                                           software in this sector. While India is
                                                                  incentives at Ayming UK, says: “The pace
                                                                      same time, emerging markets should benefit
                                                                          eventually pressure wages upward, lifting
               oxide, oil, paint or other coverings
                                                                                       sectors is a major revenue contributor in the
                                                                                       United States and EMEA.
           to qualify, with the finished product classified      to 12 months (which can be back dated).   sations faced high-profile internal strife   labour regulations will undergo a seismic   not will find themselves with a short lifespan   expected to resume as economies reopen.   of economic change is rapid, and     low US real interest rates, a weaker dollar,   inflation. “These reflationary policies will also   Manufacturing:  Predictive  analytics,     in edge analytics for renewable energy   impacts investment in autonomous robo
              l   Simple paining and polishing operations
                                                                                  on the following industry verticals:
                                                                                           witnessing growth in government investment
                                                                      from widening US current account deficits,

                                                businesses face the absolute certainty that
                                       from a particular supplier. The other is a long-
                                                             new infection rates climbed, growth is
           under a different 4-digit tariff heading.
                                                                  Covid-19 has added fuel to the fire. And,
                                                                          have key implications for global growth, and
                                       term declaration which covers a period of up
                                                                        macroeconomic
                                                                                              on the factory floor. The use of edge analytics
                                                   as cloud-native solutions make it easier than
                                                             The economics team forecasts 5% GDP
                                                shift buoyed by a new presidential
                                            between employees and business leaders in
                                                                                           (mainly solar), green buildings are driving
                                                                      accommodative
                                                                          especially for emerging markets, because of
                                                             consensus estimate. The team’s 2022
                                                                                              materials and goods on the factory floor is
                                                                  has yet to fully reveal itself, companies
                                                                                           Singapore,
                                                                                            Indonesia,
                                       need should HRMC decide to audit.
                                            mutual respect thrived. In 2021, trust will be
                                                                                       to make needed adjustments to optimise
                                                                                  use case in the manufacturing sector.
                                                   make the next leap to help executive
                                                                      for emerging markets in 2021, led by a
                                                                                           Malaysia.
                                                                          balance,” Ahya says. The economics team
                                                                                       energy production. The EMEA region is the
                                                                                              expected to grow substantially over the
                                                                                             Thailand,
                                            more broadly viewed as a foundational
                                                negotiations between the UK and European
                                                                   innovate
          6  WINTER 2021 – INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY EXTRA  8  WINTER 2021 – INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY EXTRA  This is the back-up information that you will   2020, those with cultures built on trust and   administration in the US and Brexit   ever to change vendors. Technologies must   growth in 2021, which is slightly below the   while the impact of the pandemic on R&D  market   and policies. That adds up to 7.4% GDP growth  28 a shift in the US savings-investment   primarily predictive maintenance, is a critical   Energy: Edge analytics data ca
                                                                    through
                                                                  must
                                                Union. This will create an even more
                                                                      forecast 9.8% improvement in India.
                                                             outlook for the euro zone, however, pegs
                                                                                              forecast period.
                                                                          WINTER 2021 – INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY EXTRA
                                                   leadership, HR, and people managers
                                                   enhance their employees’ lives.  GDP growth at 3.9%, versus a consensus   downturns. Fortunately, this report reveals   believes that this change in regime will in turn

                                                                  are discovering new ways both to fund
                                                                      impose Covid-19 closures  – has quickly
                                                             support, the initial rebound should turn into
                                                    INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY EXTRA – WINTER 2021  9  estimate of 2.8%. “With ongoing policy   that businesses and governments alike   Meanwhile, China – which was the first to   drive US dollar weakness and ultimately set    INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY EXTRA – WINTER 2021  29
                                                                          the scene for a reflationary impulse for the
                                                                          rest of the world.
                                                             a robust recovery,” says Ahya. One notable   productive.”  regained ground, as consumption roars   15
                                                                  their innovation and make it more
                                                             exception is the UK, where Brexit could slow
                                                             the pace of recovery.    INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY EXTRA – WINTER 2021
                                                     14  WINTER 2021 – INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY EXTRA
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