Page 53 - 3rd-year-tourism-2021_Neatترم اول

An optimist’s view of tourism’s future

(I) One does not have to be an optimist to believe that international tourism will grow
substantially over this century. As tourism has expanded in the latter half of the
twentieth century it has been accused of many things: despoiler of environments,
destroyer of cultures and exploiter of poor nations. Tourism, it is claimed, ultimately
destroys the attractive features of a place and thus can neither sustain its resource
base nor itself as an industry in the long term.

(II)It is possible, however, to regard tourism’s future growth as not only assured but
also highly desirable. Tourism will continue to grow, the challenges consequently
presented can be met, and the ultimate outcome will be positive, depending on how
well both the tourism industry and governments respond to those challenges. A
glance at the recent past reveals a remarkable increase in international tourist arrivals
from 25 million in 1950 to 664 million in 1999, an average annual growth rate of 7%
. By 2020 international arrivals are predicted to reach 1.18 billion, representing an
average annual growth rate of 4.1%. Such forecasts seem reasonable given the
likelihood that the forces driving past growth will continue for the foreseeable future:
faster, larger aircraft leading to lower real travel costs; more widespread wealth in a
greater number of countries; reduction of barriers to travel imposed by nations on
their own citizens and visitors; the globalization of media raising people’s awareness
of the world outside their own domains and raising their interest in experiencing other
places. Consequently, by the end of the 21st century it is highly likely that more
people will travel more often to a wider range of international destinations.

(III)There are, however, reasons to believe that this future will not be realized. One of
the greatest uncertainties lies in at least maintaining the current historically low cost
of international travel. With plans well advanced for the introduction of larger and
more fuel-efficient aircraft the medium-term outlook is promising, but looking into
the future there must be concerns about the increasing scarcity of oil.

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