Page 13 - Summer eng 2017

For 2016 apparel and equipment sales, the Report references Golf Datatech’s yearend results for North America. Insights such as the most improved trend in apparel retail, was women’s tops, up 5.1% over 2015. On hard goods, the greatest year over year improve- ment category was a 4.2% increase in wedge sales revenue. However, overall apparel sales were down by 5.4% and equipment off by 5.6%.
Looking ahead to revenue predictions for the 2017 golf season, the NGCOA Canada surveyed golf course operations across Canada about their own forecasts and expectations. The data contains some interesting results, including the following:
35% of operators are forecasting gross revenues to be flat this year (+/- 1%), 46% to be up between 1-5%, and 13% to be up by more than 5%. With only 6% of courses predicting a decline for 2017, the ‘cautious optimism’ noted above may deserve a more positive adjective.
When asked the same question but limited to forecasting just green fee plus cart revenues, the results show an almost identical trend, with only 7% predicting a decline in those core golf revenues.
As tournaments are a critical part of many golf operations, the Report notes that 56% of Canadian course operators predicted that their number of tournaments would increase in 2017, 36% predicted they would remain flat, and 8%, a decrease.
The corresponding revenue projections for their tournament business were 56% expecting to be up and 8% down. It would appear that some combination of improved client economic factors and golf tournament marketing are anticipated.
Food and beverage revenues for this year are also predicted to improve. 61% indicated that their F&B is budgeted to increase, 34% to remain flat, and 5% to decline. The Report breaks down these trends into more granular categories, which further confirms that optimism.
It should also be noted that more and more operators are stating that their F&B departments arenowpositionedasprofitcentres rather than the past tendency of many to treat that business as a break-even or loss-leader necessary to support their core golf business.
58% reported an expectation that membership revenues would remain flat, 36% to increase, and 6% to decline. Initiation fees were excluded for the purposes of this survey question. Membership rates were consistent with these findings, with 59% of courses remaining flat, 37% increasing their fees by more than 1%, and only 4% decreasing. The total number of members also skewed toward positive growth, although 60% still forecasted to remain flat.
Average rate per round is another key indicator. For 2017, 63% of public access golf courses are projecting to be flat, 35% to be up more than 1%, and 2% to be down. Average guest round rates at private golf clubs are forecasted to be 53% flat, 18% up, and 28% down. The opposite direction trending between public and private club average rate (excluding members) may be noteworthy.
WeAtheR IMPACt
No conversation about rounds or revenues would be complete without some reference to the impact of the weather. Cross referencing the weather is critical and the Report compiles that impact.
Derived from 600 Canadian golf course operators rating the net effect of rain, temperature, wind, humidity, and timing on golfer demand for their own tee times, the Weather Score is calculated monthly and annually for each province. On a 0-10 scale, a Weather Score of 5 is defined as normal for that region in that month. Scores higher than 5 are varying degrees of good news, and below 5 quantifies weaker than normal weather for golf.
For 2016, the overall impact of the weather across Canada was positive with a national blended Weather Score of 6.12, indicating that golfer demand should receive a boost. When comparing year- over-year, the weather impact in 2015 delivered a further positive effect, with a Weather Score of 6.43.
The 2016 ‘flat’ year-over-year rounds played and ‘up slightly’ over the 3 year average are encouraging indicators given that we are comparing to 2015, a season that had the advantage of better golf weather nationally. However, it does imply that we temper our enthusiasm regarding the two year uptick in rounds played. Favourable weather was certainly responsible for some of those gains, hence the ‘cautious optimism’ expressed by many.
As with rounds played there were regional anomalies. However, all provinces did experience annual golf weather for the 2016 season that was at least as good as normal, ranging from normal to significantly better.
No province reported below normal weather impact. Ontario and Quebec benefitted the most from the weather pattern. The lower mainland and Vancouver Island, who normally benefit from a 12 month golf season, did have very weak January to March
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