Page 11 - THE ORACLE MAGAZINE October'23 EDITION

Apart from Taiwan, China has used aggressive
strategies in the South China Sea in order to gain
power over the ‘9-dash line’ region. It has been
pursuing ‘salami tactics’ of gradual construction
of military bases and alteration of the status quo
with measures small enough to avoid military
response by others. However, it must be admitted
that China is demonstrating a desire to create a
sphere of influence in the region, which may
eventually escalate to further US involvement.
Apart from physical violence, China and the US
have acted aggressively towards each other
through commerce. From the early 21st century,
the US and China have been trapped in a ‘Trade
War’ that seems to have no end in sight. Since
around 2010, the US has continuously blamed
China for its large trade deficit and has taken
action against China to try to gradually cut back
Chinese exports. Particularly during Trump's
presidency, severe steps to restrict Chinese
exports were taken, like imposing harsh tariffs
on many Chinese goods such as aluminium and
steel. As expected, China had retaliatory
measures, placing sharp sanctions on US
imports. Trump accused China of “ripping off” the
United States, by taking advantage of free trade
rules to the detriment of US firms operating in
China, and labelled China “the greatest threat to
America today”
. Beijing, on the other hand,
criticised the Trump administration’s moves as
“trade bullying” and cautioned that tariffs could
trigger global market unrest. Further escalation
followed on both sides, with the US most recently
accusing China of spying and threatening US
security through Tik Tok and Chinese-operated
balloons in US airspace.
The theory of ‘Thucydides trap’” brings up the major
concern of China trying to outperform the US in
economic prosperity and military might. The theory
describes that when a rising power tries to displace a
greater one, the result is usually violence. This could
be the case with China and the US, nonetheless, it may
be more likely that in today's modern world with
mutually assured destruction, alliances and economic
interdependence, the powers will stray away from
war.
In conclusion, it is unlikely that in the near future the
China-US tensions will escalate to a point where a war
is inevitable. Although Taiwan and the South China
Sea present major security concerns, due to the fact
that China and the US have enormous economies that
would be crippled by war, and the fact that mutually
assured destruction is more present than ever, the
powers will likely stray away from war. Nonetheless,
the trade war between the nations is likely to continue
to intensify, as there have been little signs of
progress. This tension will continue to shape the
future of the global economy.
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THE ORACLE MAGAZINE