Page 55 - Bloomberg Businessweek July 2018

◼ REMARKS July 2, 2018

Bloomberg Businessweek
its traditional northern support deep into the south with In the end, Greece got some $280 billion in loans, and
anti- immigrant rhetoric. Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Cyprus also received financial
With public opinion shifting, CSU leader Horst Seehofer rescues in exchange for deeply unpopular and painful spend-
sensed his moment. Defying Merkel, he threatened to use ing cuts. Youth unemployment in Greece reached 60 percent
his powers as federal interior minister to start turning back in 2013; even now it’s about 44 percent. Throughout, Merkel
migrants at Germany’s frontiers. If he follows through, the held the line, urging everyone “to do their homework.” With
chancellor will either have to perform a humiliating climb- the help provided by Mario Draghi’s European Central Bank,
down or sack him, risking a rift with his Bavarian party that Europe is on the mend.
could deny her coalition its parliamentary majority. But years of being belted around have taken their toll. In
Seehofer says he’ll start rejecting migrants who were Italy, Greece, and across swaths of southern Europe, Merkel —
already registered in another EU country unless Merkel man- held up by fans as Europe’s savior—will forever be seen as the
ages to get a deal that achieves the same result at a June 28-29 relentless enforcer of fiscal discipline, and her political demise
summit of EU leaders in Brussels. The outcome is already would be cheered as the final curtain on the age of austerity.
in doubt: Orban and his allies in Poland, Slovakia, and the Officials in France might feel relief that the EU’s dominant
Czech Republic, all of which refuse to accept any refugees at figure had finally released the bloc’s tiller. French President
all, boycotted a preliminary meeting on migration on June 24. Emmanuel Macron once dismissed Germany’s dedication to
Migration is “a European challenge that requires a running up budget surpluses as a “fetish.” Many in Poland,
European answer,” Merkel says, arguing that Germany would Hungary, and Eastern Europe, backers of her emphasis on
risk undermining EU unity by taking unilateral action on its austerity, would see her fall as a vindication of their hard
borders. Acting collectively is “one of the most decisive issues line on refugees.
in holding Europe together.” The contumely heaped upon the 63-year-old Merkel
That message falls on deaf ears in Italy, the biggest arrival stands in stark contrast to the image she cultivated at home
point for the third straight year for migrants crossing the as she established herself as Europe’s indispensable leader.
Mediterranean. There, Seehofer’s counterpart, Matteo Although she has degrees in physics and chemistry, she
Salvini, is turning away humanitarian vessels and demand- was photographed in her early years as chancellor wheel-

14 ing more help from the rest of Europe. ing a shopping cart through her local food store, trailed by
The paradox is that Merkel might be Italy’s best hope for her security detail. She even bagged her own groceries and
achieving a comprehensive agreement on migration. If she boasted she makes a mean potato soup. She and her second
were toppled and replaced by a hard-liner, the new German husband, Joachim Sauer, rejected the sprawling living quar-
leader would be unlikely to ignore Salvini’s provocations and ters in the chancellery and instead live in her 19th century
heed Italy’s pleas for help. apartment building in Berlin’s central Mitte district.
No leader is indispensable, and after almost 13 years Yet just as Merkel’s ambition—and ruthlessness—were
of Merkel, German voters have a right to call for change. underestimated on her way up, in what must surely be her
The standoff that threatens her ouster may not come, since final term, her ability to hold Europe together is overlooked.
Bavaria’s CSU is vying to maintain its absolute majority The one place where her European clout is clearly under-
in Bavarian regional elections in October in the face of a stood is Washington. The dominant image of the Group of
challenge by the AfD, and it has little interest in stoking Seven summit in Canada was of Merkel in front of her fel-
national instability. low leaders bearing down on an obviously petulant President
But with the political forces massing against Europe—from Trump, sitting with his arms crossed, his chin jutting out. Her
demagogues to refugees—and leaders in Russia and the U.S. standing in Europe is one reason he’s so keen to undermine
with no qualms about upending trans-Atlantic relations, Merkel her. In a recent series of factually incorrect tweets, he con-
looks like she’s preparing to fight to hang around for a while flated migration to Europe with crime—as he’s done at home—
longer. Her aim: defend an outpost of consensus-driven politics and suggested Merkel was on the ropes as a result.
that appears to be increasingly exceptional in today’s world. “The people of Germany are turning against their leader-
For Brookings’s Stelzenmueller, Merkel’s “incremental, dila- ship as migration is rocking the already tenuous Berlin coali-
tory, piecemeal approach” can be “infuriating.” That’s espe- tion,” Trump said. “Crime in Germany is way up. Big mistake
cially so “when you sense that there’s a tsunami approaching made all over Europe in allowing millions of people in who
the borders of Europe and the levees just aren’t high enough.” have so strongly and violently changed their culture!”
And yet it was just that approach—derided on all sides— For the president, “Merkel represents that somewhat
that resulted in a coalition willing to write the checks that old-fashioned, open-borders idealism that’s rapidly dis-
held the euro together when Greece’s financial troubles prom- appearing in Europe,” says Nile Gardiner, director of the
ised to blow it up. Starting in early 2010 and through count- Heritage Foundation’s Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom
less make-or-break summits for the next five years, Merkel in Washington. “Donald Trump is at heart a Europe skeptic. ILLUSTRATION: NICHOLE SHINN
brought along a reluctant German parliament while holding He’s not a believer of the Europe project, while Merkel is the
off urgent calls to do more, faster. guardian of the Europe project.” <BW> �With Nick Wadhams