Page 96 - Time Magazine-November 05, 2018

TheBrief Opener

DIPLOMACY Bolton confirmed that notice had not yet been given but
An arms agreement failed to provide any details on the way ahead. A glimmer
of hope came when Putin invited Trump to meet in Paris
in the crosshairs on Nov. 11 to discuss the arms agreement and other mat-
ters of mutual interest as the city celebrates the 100th an-
By W.J. Hennigan niversary of World War I’s end.

residenT donald Trump removed The PresidenT’s decision to withdraw from the INF
another brick from the crumbling edifice nevertheless rattled arms-control experts and former gov-
of nuclear-arms control by threatening to ernment officials, who saw it as just the latest blow to the
Pwithdraw from a treaty with Russia that has nuclear-arms-control regime that has helped preserve
kept midrange nuclear-tipped missiles off the European peace since the Cold War. In recent years, several treaties
continent for three decades. initially designed to avoid miscalculation and keep com-
Russia, he says, violated the Intermediate-Range Nu- munication channels open between the superpowers have
clear Forces (INF) Treaty “for many years” by building fallen apart.
and fielding prohibited cruise missiles, despite warnings Since 2014, the State Department has alleged Moscow
from Washington; Russia denies doing so. So the Presi- was in violation of the INF treaty. Yet it has never offered
dent sent National Security Adviser John Bolton to Mos- proof. Nothing has been published about the weapon that
cow to deliver his decision to “terminate” the agreement crossed the line, or its capabilities. The U.S. government
to Russian President Vladimir Putin. maintains that revealing the informa-
“It is the American position that tion would compromise American
Russia is in violation,” Bolton told spies’ capability to gather intelligence
reporters on Oct. 23 after meeting inside Russia. The Obama Administra-
at the Kremlin. “It is Russia’s posi- tion opted to work behind the scenes
tion that they are not in violation. So to persuade the Kremlin to stand down
one has to ask, ‘How do you convince the program. Underwhelmed by that
the Russians to come back into com- diplomatic effort, the Trump Admin-
pliance with obligations they don’t istration publicly revealed the name of
think they’re violating?’” the missile—the Novator 9M729—in
The INF treaty, first signed by November 2017. Then it began fund-
President Ronald Reagan and Soviet ing development of its own INF-bust-
Union leader Mikhail Gorbachev ing missile, which is allowed under the
in December 1987, was the first and ‘Has your eagle treaty as long as it isn’t actually built.
only nuclear-arms-control agreement to elimi- already eaten It was after those tactics apparently failed to
nate a whole class of nuclear weapons. It forced deter the Russians that Trump decided to rip up the
the countries to scrap more than 2,600 mis- all the olives, INF. Arms-control experts worry about the conse-
siles with ranges of 310 to 3,420 miles. Those leaving only quences. Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear-weapons analyst
weapons were considered destabilizing because the arrows?’ with the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation
they could strike targets so quickly that lead- Studies in Monterey, Calif., said the U.S. has noth-
Russian President
ers would have little time to run for cover—let VLADIMIR PUTIN, left, to ing to gain by withdrawing and that Moscow will
alone to strategize about the right response. U.S. National Security likely only step up the deployment of the 9M729
In Moscow, Bolton, who has spent his ca- Adviser JOHN BOLTON, or similar weapons. “It’s a mistake,” he said. “Rus-
reer denouncing international agreements in right, during a meeting in sia violated the treaty, but we’re going to take the
Moscow on Oct. 23
general, called the treaty antiquated. He said blame for killing it? Why do Putin a favor?”
there’s now a new strategic reality, in which The facts about intermediate-range missiles, PREVIOUS PAGE: TASS/GET T Y IMAGES; THESE PAGES: PUTIN AND BOLTON: MA XIM SHEMETOV— REUTERS; BRE XIT: RMV/SHUT TERSTOCK
concern over such missiles goes beyond the U.S. and their speed and fearsomeness, haven’t changed. What
Russia. China, he suggested, needs to also be included. has changed is the potential fallout from leaving the INF,
(Beijing is not a party to the INF.) which apparently goes beyond Europe. Trump has sug-
While Bolton was visiting, Putin made an attempt gested the INF works only if China agrees to its terms. If
at dark humor, drawing an allusion to the Great Seal of that doesn’t happen, Trump threatens a new arms race.
the United States, on which an eagle holds arrows in one The President told reporters on Oct. 22 that his Adminis-
claw and an olive branch in the other. “Has your eagle tration will expand the American nuclear arsenal if Russia
already eaten all the olives,” he asked, “leaving only the and China fail to comply with the INF. As Trump framed
arrows?” Bolton smiled. “Hopefully, I will have some an- it, the U.S. will have no choice but to develop such weap-
swers for you, but I didn’t bring any more olives,” he said. ons until its rivals conclude the only way to draw even is
Bolton didn’t reach straight for the arrows either, with a treaty barring them. “We’ll build it up until they
though. Under the terms of the agreement, the U.S. must come to their senses,” Trump said. “When they do, then
give Russia six months’ notice before full withdrawal. we’ll all be smart, and we’ll all stop.” 
10 Time November 5, 2018