Page 99 - Bloomberg Businessweek-October 29, 2018

◼ AGENDA Bloomberg Businessweek October 29, 2018

▶ Sanctions against Iran’s ▶ The U.S. Department
oil industry will go into effect of Justice gave the Ninth
on Nov. 4, amid turmoil in Circuit until Oct. 31 to rule
the region over the death of on its plan to scrap the
Washington Post contributor DACA program before it
Jamal Khashoggi. goes to the Supreme Court.

▶ On Oct. 29, the WTO will ▶ Leaders of a
hear one complaint against secessionist movement
the U.S. for its metals in two English-speaking
tariffs and one from the regions of Cameroon will
U.S. about other nations’ appear in the country’s
retaliatory measures. Appeal Court on Nov. 1.
▶ Judging the Fate of the Planet
▶ The U.S. Fed’s preferred ▶ Average insurance
A group of teenagers who filed suit against the government measure of inflation—a premiums under the
in 2015, arguing that its failure to stop climate change consumption-based figure Affordable Care Act will
violates their constitutional rights, will finally get their day in from the Department of drop about 1.5 percent for
federal court in Oregon on Oct. 29. The Obama and Trump Commerce—will come out 2019. Open enrollment
administrations both tried to get the suit dismissed. for September on Oct. 29. starts on Nov. 1.

◼ THE BLOOMBERG VIEW

Trump’s Nuclear Folly European partners to cooperate would be difficult in any
12 funding—it would need allies to help deploy them. Persuading
event, but if Trump is seen as the wrecker of a landmark
arms-control treaty, it will be next to impossible.
● Russia may have violated the INF treaty, but walking Giving Russia one last chance to comply, while leaving the
away from it would be an enormous miscalculation world in no doubt that it has in fact cheated, would improve
the prospects of success. There’d be no cost in terms of readi-
ness, because treaty-compliant research and development for
The Trump administration has informed Russia that it means a new weapon could move ahead regardless. Russian leader
to withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate- Range Nuclear Vladimir Putin has said he wants to extend the New START
Forces Treaty. It has grounds, because Russia is cheating. nuclear-weapons treaty that’s due to expire in 2021. Talks on
And the treaty is a problem in another way: As it stands, it both treaties could proceed hand in hand.
ties America’s hands in responding to China’s missile pro- A similar calculation applies to China. Someday, the
grams. But simply abandoning the agreement is not the U.S. might find it useful to position conventionally armed,
smart way to proceed. land-based intermediate-range weapons to counter the
Concern over the INF, in which the U.S. and the Soviet threat posed by China’s deployments. The INF treaty, which
Union pledged to eliminate ground-launched missiles with applies to both nuclear and conventional ground-based
ranges from 500 to 5,500 kilometers (roughly 300 to 3,400 missiles, rules this out. But if the U.S. were to abandon the
miles), isn’t new. The Obama administration accused Russia treaty, it would still need allies willing to help deploy the
of violating it in 2014 by testing a prohibited cruise mis- weapons. A sincere and visible effort now to fold China into
sile; last year the Trump administration accused Russia of a cooperative arms-control regime would make it easier to
deploying the weapon. get that support later.
If one party reneges on a treaty, the other has no obligation Not for the first time, Trump is setting the value of U.S.
to remain bound. But to abandon the treaty without careful allies at zero. It’s the most dangerous of his many errors.
diplomatic preparation is unwise. The U.S. should first try The U.S. needed allies to win the first Cold War, and it will
to get Russia to comply—and to bring in China as well. There need them to prevail in years ahead. A far-sighted adminis-
might be little hope of success in either case, but making the tration would not walk away from the INF as though allies ILLUSTRATION BY THOMAS COLLIGAN
effort, and being seen to make it, is a strategic necessity. don’t count. <BW>
If the U.S. were to develop new land-based intermediate-
range missiles—which, by the way, would demand substantial For more commentary, go to bloomberg.com/opinion