Page 105 - Bloomberg Businessweek - November 19, 2018

Bloomberg Businessweek The Year Ahead 2019 Politics

a source of hope to EU loyalists. The bloc’s renewed support across Europe for the EU.
economies suffered no major shock based on While EU supporters are quick to say the U.K.’s
the Brexit vote, and productivity has increased domestic turmoil shows the cost of underestimat-
steadily. From the outset of negotiations on an ing the bloc’s underlying value, they generally
exit agreement with the U.K., the EU was hip to stop short of predicting this will translate into
the British government’s strategy to “divide and gains for mainstream parties in the European leg-
rule” by attempting to circumvent the European islative ballot. A good performance by anti-EU
Commission as negotiator and deal predomi- groups in next year’s elections could make it
nantly with national leaders, which could have difficult for the Parliament to act as a counter-
helped the U.K. buy off some governments. weight to national governments and the European
While Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May Commission. Just as important, it would send
dealt with party infighting, mainly because of an shock waves through mainstream domestic poli-
unnecessary and disastrous 2017 snap election, tics across the Continent. Even policymakers who
Europe’s leaders stuck to their positions, pre- generally oppose her views agreed with France’s
venting the U.K. from cherry- picking the parts of Le Pen when she said in September that these elec-
EU membership it wants to retain. Surveys show tions could “change everything.” <BW> �Ian Wishart
Borders

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▷ The Irish question takes on new meaning in the age of Brexit

Forty years of intertwined laws, trad- remain in the EU, both sides have com- the EU’s trade rules—is a bitter pill for
ing zones, and regulations are tough mitted to people and goods flowing euroskeptics in the U.K.’s Parliament.
to unravel. Toughest of all is deciding freely between the two after Brexit. A draft agreement between Prime
what to do with the Irish border when The EU doesn’t want Northern Ireland Minister Theresa May and the EU calls
Britain leaves the European Union. to become a back door for substan- for Britain to remain in a customs union
While Northern Ireland is part of the dard goods. But the cleanest solution— with Europe until a solution can be
U.K. and the Republic of Ireland will for the whole U.K. to remain under found. <BW> �Emma Ross-Thomas

The EU and Then Some
An intricate network of agreements and regulations holds Europe together

Euro zone
Schengen Area
European Economic Area
Customs union
European Union
European Free Trade Association STEFAN BONESS/IPON/PANOS/REDUX

Austria Belgium Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovenia Slovakia Spain Czechoslovakia Denmark Hungary Poland Sweden Cyprus Ireland Bulgaria Croatia Romania United Kingdom Turkey Iceland Liechtenstein Norway Switzerland