Page 129 - Bloomberg Businessweek - November 19, 2018
P. 129

Bloomberg Businessweek                     The Year Ahead 2019                         Technology
        China


















        ▷ An awful year for the country’s tech leaders may have been just a warmup



        For a few shining moments, Tencent and the rest of China’s   ● ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.  ● ZTE CORP.
        national champions seemed on the verge of upstaging   The other primary symbol of   The maker of networking equipment
        Silicon Valley. Then everything went to hell. Early salvos   China’s internet success has lost   and downmarket smartphones said
        in a trade war with the U.S. and whispers about stretched   about 17 percent of its value in   in October that it expected to post
                                                            2018, or about $71 billion, and in
                                                                                      a 2018 loss of about $1 billion after
        valuations in smoky Shanghai parlors gave way to serious   early November downgraded its   the U.S. Department of Commerce
        trauma for just about every major Chinese tech company.   projections for the rest of its fiscal   briefly banned its purchase of
                                                            year ending next March, as the
                                                                                      parts from American suppliers last
        Now that the pace of mega- fundraisings has ebbed, and   effects of the trade war with the   spring. (ZTE sold equipment to Iran
        Beijing is going to hitherto-unseen extremes to censor the   U.S. have sapped spending money   and North Korea in violation of U.S.
                                                            from China’s middle class. “You can
                                                                                      sanctions, then violated the terms
        last bit of fun left on China’s servers, the industry is primed   blame Donald Trump,” says Mitchell   of a settlement and lied about it.) As
        for more pain. �Edwin Chan and Lulu Chen            Green, a founding partner of   a condition of lifting the ban, ZTE
                                                            Alibaba investor Lead Edge Capital   dismissed much of its top leadership,
   28                             generation wireless networks   Management LLC.      and it remains to be seen whether the
        ● TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.   while preparing to take on some                     replacements are up to the challenge
                                                                                      of rebuilding. The company’s market
                                  of America’s biggest chipmakers.   Alibaba market cap
        Once the strongest of China’s   Trump’s administration invoked its            value is about half what it was at the
        national champions, the social media   name in blocking a Qualcomm Inc.-  $ 600b   beginning of 2018.
        giant has lost about 43 percent of   Broadcom Inc. merger that would’ve
        its market value, some $245 billion,   been the largest deal ever, saying it
        since peaking in January. Chinese   would hand the lead in 5G to China.       ZTE market cap
        regulators have choked off the   Huawei has been blocked from selling   450                       $25b
        country’s pipeline of video games,   its gear in Australia, got frozen out
        a principal source of Tencent’s   of a Korean contract, and now faces
        revenue, amid concerns about   U.S.-led competition even in Papua
        game addiction. A stopgap approval   New Guinea.
        process ended in late October                                           300
        without a new channel for game
        revenue licenses, leaving Tencent   Six top companies by worldwide   1/2/18  11/13/18
        and other publishers in limbo.  smartphone shipments                                               20
                                                            ● XIAOMI CORP.
        Tencent market cap
                           $ 600b                           The smartphone giant, once thought
                                                  Samsung   to be worth $100 billion, went public

                                                  72m       at about half that in July as tensions
                                                            between Washington and Beijing rose.
                            450                             Since then, rocky recent performance           15
                                                            in its home market has raised
                                                            questions about Xiaomi’s expansion
                                                  Huawei 54m  in India, which has more promising

                                                            competitors than it did even a year
                            300                             ago. And the company’s share price
                                                            has slid about 23 percent from its
        1/23/18       11/13/18                              initial public offering value.
                                                  Apple 41m
                                                                                                           10
                                                            Xiaomi share price
        ● HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO.                 Xiaomi 32m
                                                  Oppo 29m                        $ 3
        Perhaps no company better                 Vivo 27m
        personifies the perceived trade threat
        than Huawei. Once a purveyor of
        unremarkable telecommunications
        equipment, it’s overtaken Apple                                                                     5
        Inc. in smartphone shipments and                                           1
        is shooting for the lead in fifth-
                                  Q1 2016   Q2 2018         7/9/18           11/13/18  1/2/18        11/13/18
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