Page 36 - Bloomberg Businessweek - November 19, 2018

Bloomberg Businessweek The Year Ahead 2019 Politics

Hot Seat Petro Poroshenko

▷ The post-revolution leader of the Maidan revolutionaries
has fallen out of favor in Ukraine

Four years after a revolution top- achievements. He won visa-free travel in
pled Ukraine’s Russia-backed leader, the European Union for Ukraine citizens
his replacement is struggling to cling and returned the economy to growth. But
to power. he’s also failed to end the Kremlin-backed
Elections in spring 2019 pit the incum- war raging in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas
bent, Petro Poroshenko, against a packed region. Worse, he’s barely made a dent in
field that includes Yulia Tymoshenko, graft. “The revolution gave Poroshenko
a populist ex-prime minister and hero an explicit mandate for the single most
of the 2004 Orange Revolution against important task: rooting out the oligarchy
corruption in the electoral system. and corruption,” says Lilit Gevorgyan, a
The early favorite going into next year, senior economist at IHS Markit in London.
“The revolution Tymoshenko’s campaigning in part on Poroshenko’s latest preelection prom-
gave Poroshenko the idea that Poroshenko, a billionaire oli- ises are underwhelming: further EU inte-
an explicit mandate garch, is a servant of the country’s elite—a gration and NATO membership, which
for … rooting out message that’s particularly damning in remains years away even under the
the oligarchy and Europe’s second-poorest country. rosiest outlook. They may not be enough
corruption” Poroshenko isn’ t without his to save him. ——Daryna Krasnolutska

59
2020

▷ Campaigning for the presidency has begun, making things tricky for Democrats

In 2019, Democrats will have something they achieve their ultimate goal of deposing Trump.
sorely lacked during the first two years of Donald Soon, jockeying for the 2020 Democratic
Trump’s presidency: power. Controlling the nomination will begin in earnest. Possible pres-
House of Representatives gives them oversight idential contenders such as Tom Steyer, the
and the ability to subpoena to investigate the wealthy liberal activist, and Michael Avenatti,
president. But it also poses a dilemma certain to the lawyer for adult film actress Stormy Daniels,
divide the party: How aggressively should they have already tried to push the Democratic
wield that power in going after Trump? debate in a direction that unnerves the party’s
A quick lurch toward impeachment could governing wing, led by likely House Speaker
undermine the claims of Democratic candidates Nancy Pelosi (Calif.). Steyer has spent more than
who pledged to forgo vindictiveness and gov- $100 million whipping up support for impeach-
ern responsibly. But failing to forcefully chal- ment and calling party leaders such as Pelosi,
lenge Trump risks demoralizing the activists who object to this strategy, “outliers.” Although
and first-time voters who gave them their major- Pelosi knows that her caucus needs support
ity. How the party manages its twin mandates from centrists and disaffected Republicans,
will determine whether Democrats are able to who might not cotton to this message, she can
make further gains in Congress in 2020—and do little to stop it. “You can’t control the