Page 574 - Sociology and You

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Unit 5 Social Change
These policies worked so well that the total fertility rate in Singapore dropped from 4.5 children per woman to 1.4 between 1966 and 1985. In fact, the government became worried about the reduction in population size and, in 1987, reversed some of its earlier policies. The government of Singapore now supports three or more children for people able to afford them (Yap, 1995). Despite this effort, Singapore’s total birth rate of 1.6 is still below re- placement level.
Does one child make a difference? The importance of limiting family size, even by one child, can be illustrated by population projections for the United States. Even though the United States is unlikely to increase to a three- child average in the future, the hypothetical American case can help us un- derstand the importance of population control. Figure 16.6 contrasts the projected population of the United States in the year 2070 for an average fam- ily size of two children and an average family size of three children. When small decreases in the death rate and net migration at the present level are as- sumed, an average two-child family size would result in a population of 300 million in 2015. Taking the hypothetical average family size of three children, the U.S. population would grow to 400 million by 2015. As time passed, the difference of only one extra child per family would assume added signifi- cance. By 2070, the two-child family would produce a population of 350 mil- lion, but the three-child family would push the population close to one billion! To say it another way, with an average family of two children, the U.S. pop- ulation would not quite double itself between 1970 and 2070. But should the three-child family have been the average, the population would have doubled itself twice during this same period.
The consequences of limiting population in developing regions becomes clearer when the effect of even one child added to the average number of children in a family is recognized. Moreover, the addition of one child per family has a greater effect as the population base gets larger; not only is one extra person added, but theoretically that one person will be involved with the reproduction of yet another three, and on it goes. The largest populations are found in developing countries, which also have the largest average num- ber of children per family.
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Three-child average per family Two-child average per family
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Figure 16.6 Projected Populations of the United States. This graph illustrates the importance of reaching the population replacement level (two children per family). Are you surprised at the difference in U.S. population growth caused by an average of three children per family versus two children?
Population (in millions)