Page 20 - SESSION 1 (Graduation e-BOOK)(3 October 2023)

School of Business Management, Governance and Economics
FACULTY OF COMMERCE,
MANAGEMENT AND LAW
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
IN ECONOMICS

CANDIDATE: MABUKU Mubusisi M

CANDIDATE’S DISSERTATION
EXAMINATION OF THE EFFECTS OF
MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS ON
THE NAMIBIAN ECONOMY.
The doctoral study was undertaken and completed under the
supervision of Dr Ronald Chifamba (University of Namibia) as the Main
Supervisor and Prof Teresa Kaulihowa (University of Namibia Science
and Technology) as the Co-Supervisor.
The study investigated the effects of macroeconomic shocks on the
Namibian economy between 1980 and 2018. The dynamic effects
of fiscal policy shocks through the SVAR approach were estimated,
while the effects of external shocks were examined through the VAR
technique. In addition, the impacts of copper and uranium price
shocks (positive and negative changes) on Namibia’s business cycles
(real GDP) was investigated through a new stepwise-least-squares
NARDL model. Outcomes reveal a long run cointegration among real
GDP, commodity prices, investment and exports shares of GDP. Both
copper and uranium prices have asymmetric impacts on Namibia’s
business cycle. Positive changes for both commodity prices have the
greatest impact on real GDP than negative variations.

The study recommends the following: increasing public (productive)
spending to spur sustainable economic growth; increased integration
with the global economy and industrialisation/diversification to ensure
output growth while simultaneously cushioning the economy from
external shocks and serving as a buffer against volatile commodity;
mitigating fluctuations from external shocks through robust
macroeconomic policy intervention.

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