Page 79 - Arabian Studies (V)

Water Resources and Agriculture in Qatar 69
between 135,000 and 170,000. A census in 1970 showed a total
population of 111,000.' The non-Qatari majority being made up of
expatriate Arabs, Pakistanis, Indians and Iranians with fairly clear-
cut occupational divisions between national groups.
The life of oil reserves is estimated to be about thirty-five years at
present production levels, although recent discoveries of off-shore
natural gas deposits will assist in prolonging the dominance of
petroleum production in the economy. Nevertheless it can be
readily understood that Qatar needs to provide for the time when
oil revenue will cease, even though this seems far off. But the
proved oil reserves are not enormous, and although further large
discoveries of natural gas have been proved and a recent reduction
in oil production may permit a prolongation of the dominance of
hydrocarbon production in the economy, receipts will probably
stabilize and eventually cease. What is not so obvious is the
country’s best course of action against this uncertain future.
Experience suggests that a policy of energetic domestic develop­
ment would lead to further rapid increase in population, and in this
event the country might find% itself in the year 2000 with the under­
pinnings of the economy—the oil income—removed, and a popula­
tion of some 250,000 or more to support. The situation would thus
be worse than if a less ambitious policy implying a smaller popula­
tion, had been followed; and the corollary of this is that Qatar
might be best advised to concentrate instead on building up its
financial reserves with the view to providing an income from
accumulated investments which might be well over £150 millions
per annum in perpetuity from the year 2000. Such a policy would in
effect pension the indigenous population of the country after four
decades of intense economic activity and, understandably, Govern­
ment is not attracted to this unexciting possibility, and is therefore
committed to further development in the medium term. Specifi­
cally, it is aiming at economic diversification, in particular towards
industry and agriculture. With regard to the latter, Government’s
stated policy is to achieve self-sufficiency in basic food supplies as a
hedge against the eventual certainty of having to commit a large
proportion of investment and industrial income to food imports.
Present agricultural production amounts to about 40,000 tonnes
of seasonal vegetables and fruit from a small cultivated area to
1975 ha. out of a total arable area of 29,600 ha. based on irrigation
from pumped groundwater. The large amount of water required to
maintain present rates of production (about 1 m3/kg. of fresh
produce) is however imposing a severe strain on available ground-
water resources and it is evident that the availability of good quality
groundwater will become a major constraint to development and