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Impacted by Caribbean climate extremes
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faster than maximum temperatures. The frequencies of warm days, warm nights and extreme high temperatures have increased, while fewer cool days, cool nights and extreme low temperatures were found for the 1986-2010 and 1961-2010 periods.
A new day - new extremes
Can we expect more extremes in the future? Computer models are used to provide a picture of future climate and extreme events. The model used in this work was Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) Regional Climate Model (RCM). One of the possible futures suggested is that northern and eastern Caribbean islands may experience more intense rainfall by 2071-2099 relative to today, under two equally possible greenhouse emissions scenarios. There is also a possibility that south eastern countries, such as Trinidad and northern Guyana, may experience drier conditions. Increased incidence of warm days and nights are expected towards the end of the century, with strongest changes over the eastern Caribbean.
Impacted by change
And what does this mean for our societies and for this researcher? The Climate Studies Group continues to partner with a number of institutions and individuals to understand the impact of a changing climate on our lives. The approaches have included, for example, the creation of mathematical models to project future risks of flood events, looking at the effect of extreme events on discharge from an important watershed, and looking at potential future impacts of a changing climate on crop yield – all with an initial focus on the Jamaican experience. Some of the results suggest:
- Increased future risks of loss of lives and damages related to climate extremes by the end of the century
- Increased yield of sweet potato by mid-century
- Hurricane speed is an important measure of impact, and
near misses may be more hazardous than previously supposed.
New Tools
Finally the current work has brought to the fore new tools for examining the effect of climate extremes on our lives. One such tool is the Simple Model for Advection of Storms and Hurricanes that allows any user to examine the rainfall rates and wind speeds that may be obtained for various paths, storm categories and speeds that the user chooses. See http://www.cariwig.org/ ncl_portal/. These tools hold great potential for assisting with planning and disaster preparation activities, and will aid our efforts to better cope with a changing climate.
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Recognising Outstanding Researchers 2016