Page 87 - Demo

The Caribbean Weather Impacts Group (CARIWIG) project
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Ivan, Gilbert) at various strengths (categories 1, 3 or 5) and then move the hurricanes across a Caribbean island along a path determined by the user. SMASH, therefore, has three basic steps: data collection, execution and data distribution. SMASH has potential use as a teaching tool, and also as a decision tool for those involved in scenario planning for hurricane and storm impact.
In the project SMASH is used with the HEC HMS model in a water case study to create scenarios of discharge from the Hope River Watershed in Eastern Jamaica. Three storm tracks are set (using Hurricane Ivan rainfall and wind profiles at category 5) across two sets of forward speeds (17 and 25 km/HR) to obtain rainfall rates. These rates are used in the HEC HMS model. Results show higher intensity of discharge in relation to the track south of the island (as opposed to a direct hit) and a shorter lag time to peak discharge with increase in speed of the hurricane. There is potential to use the tools for activities to create awareness of flooding from different types of tracks and speeds of hurricanes, and towards better planning to avoid loss of life and property.
A second case study, executed by the UWI, uses daily series of rainfall and temperature over two periods: 1981-2010 and 2041-70 (obtained from a weather generator developed at the University of East Anglia) as input to the AquaCrop Model. The aim is to determine the impact of future climate change on field-grown sweet potato production in St Catherine, Jamaica. The results indicated high increases in both yield and biomass (up to 40%) for 2041-2070 relative to 1981-2010 under A1B (a medium emission) scenario, with a decrease in reference evapotranspiration. The combined effect of higher productivity and reduced evapotranspiration is associated with an increase in water productivity (up to 108%).
The portal is available to any user, and holds great potential for future exploration of climate variability and change impacts on a variety of sectors. See http://www.cariwig.org/ncl_portal/.
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