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エネルギー展望/EnErgy OutlOOk

Global Power Market Trends

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) recently announced about the world’s power markets in an annual report
- New Energy Outlook (NEO) 2016, presenting a long term view on global power markets.

Key Findings vehicle sales in that year, the equivalent to 41m
cars and 90 times the demand in 2015.
Focused on electricity, NEO combines the expertise
of over 65 countries and technology specialists in 11 7. Small-scale battery storage, a USD 250bn market -
countries to provide insights to how the market will The rise of EVs will drive down the cost of lithium-ion
evolve. 10 points of interest from the report to note: batteries making them increasingly attractive to
deploy alongside residential and commercial solar
1. Coal and gas prices to stay low - Bloomberg New systems. It is expected that total behind-the-meter
Energy Finance has reduced its long-term forecasts energy storage will rise dramatically from current
for coal and gas prices by 33% and 30% respectively levels of around 400 MWh to nearly 760 MWh in 2040.
reflecting a projected supply glut for both
commodities. This cuts the cost of power generation
by burning coal or gas. 8. China coal-fired generation weaker than
previously projected - Changes in the Chinese
2. Wind and solar costs fall sharply - The stabilized economy and a move to renewables mean that
costs of generation per MWh for onshore wind will coal-fired generation in 10 years’ time will be 21%
fall 41% and solar photovoltaics by 60% by 2040 below the figure predicted in last year’s NEO now
making these technologies the cheapest form of revised to 1,000 TWh.
electricity for many countries in the 2020’s and for
most of the world in the 2030’s. 9. India the key to the future global emissions
trends - Its electricity demand is forecasted to grow
3. Fossil fuel power attracts USD 2.1 trillion - 3.8 times between 2016 and 2040. Despite
Investment in coal and gas generation will continue investing USD 611bn in renewables over the
predominantly in emerging economies. USD 1.2 next 24 years and USD 115 billion in nuclear, India
trillion will go towards new coal-burning facilities will continue to rely heavily on coal power stations
and USD 892 billion towards new gas-fired plants. to meet rising demand forecasted in a trebling of
its annual power sector emissions by 2040.
4. Renewables secure headline investments - USD
7.8 trillion will be invested in green power with 10. Renewables to dominate in Europe overtaking
onshore and offshore wind attracting USD 3.1 gas in the US - Wind, solar, hydro and other
trillion, utility-scale, rooftop and small-scale solar renewable energy plants will generate 70% of
USD 3.4 trillion and hydro-electric USD 911 billion. Europe’s power in 2040, up from 32% in 2015. In
the US, renewables will jump from 14% in 2015 to
5. The 2 C scenario would require much more 44% in 2040 with gas slipping from 33% to 31%.
O
money - Above the USD 7.8 trillion invested in
renewables, the world would need to invest another Seb Henbest, head of Europe, Middle East and Africa
USD 5.3 trillion towards zero-carbon power by for BNEF, commented: “Some USD 7.8 trillion will be
2040 to prevent CO in the atmosphere rising above invested globally in renewables between 2016 and 2040,
2
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s two thirds of the investment in all power generating
‘safe’ limit of 450 parts per million. capacity, but it would require trillions more to bring
world emissions onto a track compatible with the United
6. Electric car boom supports electricity demand - Nations 2°C climate target.”
EVs will add 2701 TWh (8%) to global electricity
demand in 2040 reflecting BNEF’s forecast that EVs
will represent 35% of worldwide new light-duty
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