Page 9 - North Atlantic and Nordic Defense

North European and North Atlantic Defense: The Challenges Return

Shaping an integrated force and one which can leverage missile defense capabilities is part of the way
ahead; but this is a work in progress.

In addition, Finland and Sweden are clearly focused on the defense challenges posed by Russia and are
strengthening their relationship with Nordic NATO partners and others as well.

Notably, Sweden has recently held the largest military exercise in more than 20 years.

Recently, I had a chance to talk with our strategic partner, Hans Tino Hansen, the CEO of Risk Intelligence,
which is based in Copenhagen, about how to view the challenges and how the Nordics are looking to shape a
way ahead.

Question: What is a good way to characterize the situation facing the Nordics strategically?

Hans Tino Hansen: I would consider this a period of limbo, without a marked strategic direction.

It certainly is not a return to the Cold War.

It is not the onward march of peaceful globalization.
It is actually a limbo situation, as I see it, which means that it’s very difficult to analyze in the right way, and
therefore also difficult to come up with the right solutions.

Ambiguity can create significant uncertainty and with uncertainty crisis situations, in which the various sides are
sorting out what their way ahead really is.

And that is what makes it a dangerous period – it will be defined by states shaping their way ahead
interacting with other states in determining their objectives and the effectiveness of their objectives.

Question: We are clearly in a strategic learning curve which is not defined by our historical experience
with the Soviets in the Cold War.

These are Russians building new capabilities and actively engaged in trying to reshape the geopolitical
situation.

A clear need with the strategic limbo situation is crafting new crisis management tools.

How do you view this challenge?

Hans Tino Hansen: It is a central one.

And next year, with the Secretary General of the Danish Atlantic Treaty Association, Lars Bangert Struwe, I
am planning a series of six workshops where we are going to focus on the new situation and its impact on
Denmark’s crisis management capability and defence planning.

We are looking at the broader situation in the northern region consider from the Arctic to the Baltic as the
context.

We are focusing on the layout of the Northern European security complex and its impact on Denmark.

We will have sessions looking respectively at the US, Russia, NATO, the role of Sweden and Finland and then
on crisis management.

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