Page 3 - bneIntelliNews Small Stans & Mongolia Outlook 2025

Executive summary
In Kyrgyzstan, the Japarov administration is increasingly demoting liberal democracy in favour of a “traditionalist” ideology. National customs and spirituality are posited as central to governance. Principles like the rule of law and meritocracy are relegated to secondary status. National security officials are kept busy, note the sceptics, as the government tends to see a coup around every corner. On the other hand, they claim organised crime has been entirely stamped out.
Very strong growth, officially running at around 9% in 2024, is evident and the international financial institutions reckon the country, buoyed by populist spending on infrastructure and its role in exporting and re-exporting to the sanctioned Russian economy, is on course for at least 6% in 2025.
Might 2025 be the year in which the ruler of more than three decades, Emomali Rahmon, hands Tajikistan’s presidency to his son, Mayor of Dushanbe Rustam Emomali? It appears that an alleged coup plot, which has resulted in a purge of prominent politicians and public figures, who have been put on trial, could be part of preparations aimed at ensuring an unopposed transition.
Like neighbouring Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan is a regional growth leader, recording around 9% in 2024, with something in the region of 7% expected in 2025. There is strong domestic demand and elevated infrastructure investment. External geopolitical risks and the fortunes of China as always pose a threat to the prosperity of the small country.
Despite some progress in diversifying its economy, remote Turkmenistan, tightly controlled by the Berdimuhamedov regime, remains dangerously reliant on its huge exports of gas piped to China.
No doubt aware of the precariousness of this situation, officials continue to cast around for new gas export markets, a search that has been made that much more urgent by sanctioned Russia’s emergence as a more aggressive competitor in its efforts made to sell more gas to non-European countries, including China. Turkmen gas shipments to Iraq, via swap arrangements with Iran, look like they could start in the near future.
Reliable statistics on Turkmenistan are extremely elusive, but best-placed analysts expect growth will amount to around 6% in both 2024 and 2025 as things stand.
As observed by Maximilian Hess lately, Mongolia’s geography lends itself to cliches – the proverbial rock and a hard place fit aptly with Russia to the north and China to its south.
3 Small Stans & Mongolia 2023 www.intellinews.com