Page 5 - bneIntelliNews Small Stans & Mongolia Outlook 2025

Kyrgyzstan watchers continue to wonder whether certain organised criminals have managed to embed themselves in the administration.
The coming year could also bring an agreement that finally ends the decades-old Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan border dispute that has led to several armed clashes. On the other hand, once local inhabitants see what officials on both sides have agreed, it could unravel.
Addressing the climate crisis, meanwhile, mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will this year step up efforts to secure more international attention and financing to address the growing and horrific threat presented by the melting of glaciers.
The coming year will also be closely watched for a worsening or improvement of the situation for Central Asian migrants who wish to maintain employment in Russia. Given the role that Central Asian, particularly Tajik, migrants allegedly played in Islamist terrorist attacks in Russia last year, xenophobia shown towards Central Asian migrants redoubled, and tightened residency and border checks have hit such existing and potential participants in Russia’s workforce hard. On the other hand, Kremlin figures have made it clear the Russian economy needs migrants as the country’s population is shrinking.
The Japarov administration’s big bets include one on the energy transition and another on making Kyrgyzstan an important transit link in East-West trade.
As regards the former, Kyrgyzstan has set itself a herculean hydro task, including the delivery of $5bn flagship hydropower project Kambarata-1.
In terms of the latter, Bishkek is determined that the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway – first conceptualised in the early 1990s – will at long last become a reality. Initial construction work is under way, though some doubt still hangs over Beijing’s commitment to delivering the requisite finances without undue hindrance or delay.
A deputy managing director of the IMF, Bo Li, after paying a visit to Kyrgyzstan in September, wrote: “Transportation networks, such as roads, railways and ports, are essential to facilitate cross-border trade. The planned construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is an illustration of cross-country cooperation to improve connectivity between the East and the West, supporting the region’s ambition to regain its historical role.”
5 Small Stans & Mongolia 2023 www.intellinews.com