Page 8 - bneIntelliNews Small Stans & Mongolia Outlook 2025

regime’s imagination. After three decades at the top, President Emomali Rahmon is preparing to hand over power to his son Rustam Emomali, and it seems likely he is seeking to purge anyone who could feasibly threaten the transition.
“One of the oddest parts of the coup allegations is the list of detainees, who range from politicians and activists loyal to the regime to opposition figures, former soldiers, ex-ministers and those with hardly any public profile. It’s not at all clear what could have united such a disparate bunch and supposedly led them to conspire with the Tajik opposition abroad.”
Tajikistan’s regime, known for unflinching oppression, continues to squeeze the Pamiri peoples of the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO). In November, bne IntelliNews reported how it seems Rahmon is set to cut their decades-old ties with their chief benefactor and spiritual leader, the Aga Khan.
A huge item that remains on the agenda for the Rahmon regime is completing the $6.4bn Rogun hydropower complex, a project dating back to Soviet days, that will boast the world’s highest dam. Environmentalists have urged the World Bank, the project’s backer, to wake up to the “nightmare” Rogun will, in their eyes, turn out to be. But in mid-December the World Bank board voted through $350mn of crucial funding.
The coming year could also bring an agreement that finally ends the decades-old Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan border dispute that has led to several armed clashes. On the other hand, once local inhabitants see what officials on both sides have agreed, it could unravel.
Addressing the climate crisis, meanwhile, mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will this year step up efforts to secure more international attention and financing to address the growing and horrific threat presented by the melting of glaciers.
The coming year will also be closely watched for a worsening or improvement of the situation for Central Asian migrants who wish to maintain their employment in Russia. Given the role that Central Asian, particularly Tajik, migrants allegedly played in Islamist terrorist attacks in Russia last year, xenophobia shown towards Central Asian migrants has redoubled and tightened residency and border checks have hit existing and potential such participants in Russia’s workforce hard. On the other hand, Kremlin figures have made it clear the Russia economy needs migrants as the country’s population is shrinking.
8 Small Stans & Mongolia 2023 www.intellinews.com