Page 9 - bneIntelliNews Small Stans & Mongolia Outlook 2025

2.2 Macro – Tajikistan
Tajikistan, like fellow small Central Asian country and neighbour Kyrgyzstan, goes into the new year hailed as a regional growth leader by institutions including the EBRD.
Tajikistan: Main macroeconomic indicators
Source: EBRD Transition Report 2024-2025
According to the EBRD’s latest Regional Economic Prospects report, the GDP growth of the country of 10.2mn is projected to reach around 9% in 2024 and 7% in 2025, thanks to strong domestic demand and elevated infrastructure investment.
The development bank added: “In Tajikistan, hikes in public-sector salaries, pensions and minimum wages drove domestic demand in the first half of the year. providing a boost to the retail and wholesale trade sectors.
“The resumption of precious and semi-precious metal exports, increased public infrastructure spending and fixed capital investment were cited as major growth factors... Fluctuations in remittances from Russia present a major downside risk.”
In mid-December, the executive board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted: “Tajikistan is navigating the challenging external environment well. Real GDP rose 8.4% during January-September 2024, underpinned by public and private investment and financial inflows, while inflation remained well contained at 3.1% year on year in September.
“The external position remains strong as robust financial inflows have continued to keep the current account in surplus and international reserves at comfortable levels. Low fiscal deficits in the post-COVID period have contributed to a meaningful reduction in public debt, and improved banking sector soundness has supported gains in financial intermediation.”
The near-term outlook remained favourable, with exposure to external
9 Small Stans & Mongolia 2023 www.intellinews.com